The School of Odds
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Columbus Aviators v Birmingham Stallions

Kickoff: 2026-05-23 19:00 UTC

Final: Columbus Aviators 36–29 Birmingham Stallions

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Columbus Aviators (Local)

Prediction 46.77%2.14fair odd
EV +0.545%
Edge +0.254%
Kelly +0.474%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%46.59%46.75%47.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.042.022.1552.08%48.91%49.38%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Birmingham Stallions (Visit)

Prediction 53.23%1.88fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.41%
Kelly -3.11%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.22%53.41%53.25%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.791.801.8358.48%56.01%55.56%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Columbus Aviators (Local): 46.77%; Birmingham Stallions (Visit): 53.23%. For Columbus Aviators (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.14. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.15, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.545%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +0.545%E +0.254%K +0.474%G +0.003%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -7.37%E -4.24%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-23 18:09
BetAnything🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +0.545%E +0.254%K +0.474%G +0.003%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -7.37%E -4.24%K -9.96%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-23 18:09
FanDuel🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -1.79%E -0.854%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -5.77%E -3.26%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-22 19:10
MyBookie.ag🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -1.79%E -0.854%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -7.37%E -4.24%K -9.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-23 12:58
BetUS🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -1.79%E -0.854%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -8.97%E -5.24%K -12.63%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-23 18:39
Caesars🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -3.20%E -1.54%K -2.99%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -4.71%E -2.63%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-05-23 17:03
DraftKings🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.13%E -2.02%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.18%E -2.32%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 17:09
theScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.13%E -2.02%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.18%E -2.32%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-18 13:25
Bovada🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -4.13%E -2.02%K -3.93%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.18%E -2.32%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-23 12:57
Pinnacle🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 47.00%EV -5.07%E -2.50%K -4.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.00%EV -4.18%E -2.32%K -5.22%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-23 17:30
BetRivers🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.53%E -2.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.65%E -2.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-18 18:30
Bally Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.53%E -2.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.65%E -2.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-18 18:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.53%E -2.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.65%E -2.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-18 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.53%E -2.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.65%E -2.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-18 18:34
betPARX🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.53%E -2.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.65%E -2.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-18 18:35
Unibet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.26%EV -5.53%E -2.74%K -5.43%G +0.000%1.81I 55.25%NM 52.74%EV -3.65%E -2.01%K -4.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-18 18:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.47%E -3.23%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.58%E -1.41%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-22 13:30
BetMGM🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -6.47%E -3.23%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -2.58%E -1.41%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-18 15:55
Fanatics🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -6.47%E -3.23%K -6.47%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -5.77%E -3.26%K -7.50%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-18 13:35
ReBet🎯1.92I 52.08%NM 47.40%EV -10.21%E -5.32%K -11.10%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 52.60%EV -7.90%E -4.57%K -10.83%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-22 19:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.