The School of Odds
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Birmingham Stallions v Orlando Storm

Kickoff: 2026-04-18 20:10 UTC

Final: Birmingham Stallions 0–16 Orlando Storm

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Stallions (Local)

Prediction 57.37%1.74fair odd
EV -1.32%
Edge -0.766%
Kelly -1.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.83%57.30%57.40%59.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.671.671.7262.89%59.84%59.88%58.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Orlando Storm (Visit)

Prediction 42.63%2.35fair odd
EV +0.172%
Edge +0.073%
Kelly +0.127%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.87%42.70%42.60%46.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.972.212.202.3550.76%45.17%45.45%42.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Stallions (Local): 57.37%; Orlando Storm (Visit): 42.63%. For Orlando Storm (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.346. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.350, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.172%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -5.33%E -3.23%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +0.172%E +0.073%K +0.127%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-18 20:00
BetAnything🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.75%EV -5.33%E -3.23%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.25%EV +0.172%E +0.073%K +0.127%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-18 19:59
BetMGM🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -5.33%E -3.23%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -1.96%E -0.852%K -1.51%G +0.000%4.1%2026-04-18 20:00
BetUS🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -7.05%E -4.35%K -11.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -1.96%E -0.852%K -1.51%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-18 19:59
Bovada🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -8.78%E -5.52%K -14.87%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -1.96%E -0.852%K -1.51%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-18 20:01
Caesars🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 57.97%EV -4.76%E -2.87%K -7.21%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.03%EV -2.39%E -1.04%K -1.85%G +0.000%3.9%2026-04-18 19:58
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -5.33%E -3.23%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -3.66%E -1.62%K -2.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-18 19:59
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -4.09%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 20:05
MyBookie.ag🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -5.33%E -3.23%K -8.21%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -4.09%E -1.82%K -3.27%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-18 20:05
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.46%E -1.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-18 20:05
Fanatics🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 20:05
theScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -4.19%E -2.51%K -6.25%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-18 20:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -7.05%E -4.35%K -11.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -6.22%E -2.83%K -5.19%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-18 20:00
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -1.89%E -1.11%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -7.93%E -3.67%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-18 20:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -1.89%E -1.11%K -2.66%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -7.93%E -3.67%K -6.83%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-18 20:05
BetRivers🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -1.32%E -0.766%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -8.78%E -4.10%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-18 20:00
Unibet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -1.32%E -0.766%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -8.78%E -4.10%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-18 20:00
betPARX🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -1.32%E -0.766%K -1.83%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -8.78%E -4.10%K -7.70%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-18 20:00
Bally Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -2.46%E -1.45%K -3.52%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -9.63%E -4.54%K -8.60%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-18 20:05
ReBet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.83%EV -3.04%E -1.80%K -4.40%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 46.17%EV -16.03%E -8.14%K -16.52%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-18 19:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.