The School of Odds
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Birmingham Stallions v DC Defenders

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 00:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

20 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Stallions (Local)

Prediction 30.57%3.27fair odd
EV +2.42%
Edge +0.721%
Kelly +1.03%
Growth +0.025%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.57%30.44%30.46%32.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.843.173.153.3535.21%31.50%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

DC Defenders (Visit)

Prediction 69.43%1.44fair odd
EV -2.80%
Edge -2.00%
Kelly -7.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.94%69.56%69.54%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.361.361.4074.63%73.31%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Stallions (Local): 30.57%; DC Defenders (Visit): 69.43%. For Birmingham Stallions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.27. 7 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.42%.

Sportsbook Odds (20 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +2.42%E +0.721%K +1.03%G +0.025%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.97%E -5.20%K -20.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-22 00:09
Bally Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +2.42%E +0.721%K +1.03%G +0.025%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.97%E -5.20%K -20.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-22 00:09
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +2.42%E +0.721%K +1.03%G +0.025%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.97%E -5.20%K -20.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-22 00:09
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +2.42%E +0.721%K +1.03%G +0.025%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.97%E -5.20%K -20.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-22 00:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +2.42%E +0.721%K +1.03%G +0.025%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.97%E -5.20%K -20.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-22 02:09
Unibet (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.57%EV +2.42%E +0.721%K +1.03%G +0.025%1.34I 74.63%NM 71.43%EV -6.97%E -5.20%K -20.49%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-22 06:09
Bovada🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV +0.887%E +0.269%K +0.386%G +0.003%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -5.58%E -4.10%K -15.49%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-22 09:28
DraftKings🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -0.641%E -0.197%K -0.285%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -5.58%E -4.10%K -15.49%G +0.000%4.3%2026-04-21 17:29
Pinnacle🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -0.641%E -0.197%K -0.285%G +0.000%1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -6.27%E -4.65%K -17.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-24 00:44
Caesars🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.70%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-24 00:40
theScore Bet🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -3.70%E -1.17%K -1.72%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-24 00:09
FanDuel🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.80%E -2.00%K -7.00%G +0.000%3.7%2026-04-21 04:19
BetUS🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 02:59
BetAnything🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.23%E -1.69%K -2.49%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-22 16:19
MyBookie.ag🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 30.94%EV -5.84%E -1.90%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 69.06%EV -4.19%E -3.04%K -11.02%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-21 19:08
BetOnline.ag🎯3.07I 32.57%NM 31.32%EV -6.14%E -2.00%K -2.97%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.68%EV -2.80%E -2.00%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.0%2026-04-21 22:14
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.80%E -2.00%K -7.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-20 16:45
Fanatics🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.35%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.37I 72.99%NM 68.65%EV -4.88%E -3.56%K -13.20%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-21 19:04
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.28%E -2.76%K -4.14%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.58%E -4.10%K -15.49%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-21 19:00
ReBet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 32.06%EV -13.18%E -4.64%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 67.94%EV -6.97%E -5.20%K -20.49%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-24 00:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.