The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Birmingham Stallions v Columbus Aviators

Kickoff: 2026-05-17 17:00 UTC

Final: Birmingham Stallions 14–3 Columbus Aviators

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Stallions (Local)

Prediction 53.97%1.85fair odd
EV +0.916%
Edge +0.490%
Kelly +1.05%
Growth +0.010%

assuming max odds 1.87

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%53.62%54.18%54.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.781.751.8759.52%56.30%57.14%53.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Columbus Aviators (Visit)

Prediction 46.03%2.17fair odd
EV -2.41%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -2.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.22%46.38%45.82%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.872.062.092.1253.48%48.58%47.85%47.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Stallions (Local): 53.97%; Columbus Aviators (Visit): 46.03%. For Birmingham Stallions (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.916%.

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.916%E +0.490%K +1.05%G +0.010%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -10.23%E -5.25%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 16:50
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV +0.916%E +0.490%K +1.05%G +0.010%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -10.23%E -5.25%K -10.77%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-17 16:50
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV +0.916%E +0.490%K +1.05%G +0.010%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -13.92%E -7.44%K -16.00%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-17 16:55
Caesars🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -1.78%E -0.979%K -2.17%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-17 16:55
DraftKings🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.86%E -1.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 15:25
Bovada🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -2.86%E -1.59%K -3.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 15:25
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.48%E -2.53%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.33%E -1.58%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 14:50
FanDuel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.48%E -2.53%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.33%E -1.58%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 14:55
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.48%E -2.53%K -5.82%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.33%E -1.58%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-17 14:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.56%E -3.18%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.41%E -1.14%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 14:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.56%E -3.18%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.41%E -1.14%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 14:35
Bally Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.56%E -3.18%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.41%E -1.14%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 14:35
betPARX🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.56%E -3.18%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.41%E -1.14%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 14:35
Unibet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.56%E -3.18%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.41%E -1.14%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 14:35
BetRivers🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -5.56%E -3.18%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -2.41%E -1.14%K -2.15%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-17 14:35
MyBookie.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -5.56%E -3.18%K -7.41%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -3.79%E -1.81%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-17 14:54
Fanatics🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.10%E -3.51%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:55
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.10%E -3.51%K -8.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.63%E -2.75%K -5.36%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-17 14:50
ReBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.10%EV -9.34%E -5.56%K -13.73%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 45.90%EV -8.85%E -4.47%K -9.03%G +0.000%10.0%2026-05-17 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.