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Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Kansas City Chiefs
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local)
Prediction 63.40%1.58fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.701%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.56
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.04%63.82%63.27%67.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.491.501.5669.93%67.22%66.89%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)
Prediction 36.60%2.73fair odd
EV +7.97%
Edge +2.70%
Kelly +4.09%
Growth +0.325%
assuming max odds 2.95
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.65%36.18%36.73%37.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.652.602.9540.00%37.76%38.46%33.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local): 63.40%; Kansas City Chiefs (Visit): 36.60%. For Kansas City Chiefs (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.97%.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -9.34%E -6.53%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +7.97%E +2.70%K +4.09%G +0.325% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 23:34 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -9.34%E -6.53%K -21.71%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV +7.97%E +2.70%K +4.09%G +0.325% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 23:33 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.40%EV -7.43%E -5.09%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.60%EV +1.01%E +0.367%K +0.576%G +0.006% | 4.7% | 2026-08-22 21:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -6.17%E -4.17%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV +0.647%E +0.235%K +0.370%G +0.002% | 3.9% | 2026-08-22 23:33 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.07%E -5.56%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.647%E +0.235%K +0.370%G +0.002% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.07%E -5.56%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.647%E +0.235%K +0.370%G +0.002% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 23:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.07%E -5.56%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.647%E +0.235%K +0.370%G +0.002% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.07%E -5.56%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.647%E +0.235%K +0.370%G +0.002% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 23:03 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -8.07%E -5.56%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV +0.647%E +0.235%K +0.370%G +0.002% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 23:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.07%EV -7.43%E -5.09%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 34.93%EV -0.451%E -0.166%K -0.262%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 21:53 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29%EV -4.90%E -3.27%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71%EV -1.18%E -0.438%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-22 21:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -7.43%E -5.09%K -16.16%G +0.000% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -1.18%E -0.438%K -0.696%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-22 23:31 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.26%E -2.82%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -3.01%E -1.14%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-22 23:29 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -6.17%E -4.17%K -12.85%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -3.01%E -1.14%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 23:30 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -6.80%E -4.63%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -3.01%E -1.14%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-22 21:55 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.51I 66.23%NM 63.53%EV -4.26%E -2.82%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 2.63I 38.02%NM 36.47%EV -3.74%E -1.42%K -2.30%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-22 23:25 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.50%EV -1.09%E -0.701%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.50%EV -4.84%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-22 22:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.80%EV -2.36%E -1.53%K -4.37%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.20%EV -4.84%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-22 22:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.95%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 37.05%EV -4.84%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 22:34 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.63%E -2.39%K -6.98%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.84%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 23:34 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.90%E -3.27%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.84%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 22:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.90%E -3.27%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.84%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 22:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.90%E -3.27%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.84%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 23:22 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.90%E -3.27%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.84%E -1.86%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 23:34 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.33%EV -4.90%E -3.27%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.59I 38.61%NM 36.67%EV -5.21%E -2.01%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-22 22:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.04%EV -1.09%E -0.701%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.96%EV -6.67%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-22 23:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -3.00%E -1.96%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -6.67%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-22 23:34 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -4.90%E -3.27%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.67%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-22 21:50 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.53%E -3.71%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.67%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-22 23:34 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -6.80%E -4.63%K -14.47%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -6.67%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 23:29 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.07%E -5.56%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.67%E -2.62%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-22 22:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.90%E -3.27%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.50%E -3.40%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-22 23:35 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -4.90%E -3.27%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.50%E -3.40%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-22 23:35 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -5.53%E -3.71%K -11.29%G +0.000% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -8.50%E -3.40%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-22 23:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.90% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10% | 1.0% | 2026-08-22 23:35 |
| Novig◎ | 1.57I 63.69%NM 62.97% | 2.67I 37.45%NM 37.03% | 1.1% | 2026-08-22 23:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.51I 66.23%NM 64.30% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.70% | 3.0% | 2026-08-22 23:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07% | 4.5% | 2026-08-22 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.93% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 37.07% | 4.5% | 2026-08-22 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 71.87% | 2.58I 38.76%NM 28.13% | 37.8% | 2026-08-22 23:35 |