The School of Odds
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Pittsburgh Steelers v New York Jets

Kickoff: 2026-08-21 23:05 UTC

Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 0–17 New York Jets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Pittsburgh Steelers (Local)

Prediction 55.49%1.80fair odd
EV -0.112%
Edge -0.062%
Kelly -0.140%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.88%55.35%55.70%57.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.671.721.711.8059.88%58.18%58.48%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Jets (Visit)

Prediction 44.51%2.25fair odd
EV +0.140%
Edge +0.062%
Kelly +0.112%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.89%44.65%44.30%47.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.142.122.2549.50%46.79%47.17%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Pittsburgh Steelers (Local): 55.49%; New York Jets (Visit): 44.51%. For New York Jets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.247. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.250, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.140%.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
BetAnything🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -6.22%E -3.68%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV +0.140%E +0.062%K +0.112%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-21 22:40
Everygame🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -6.22%E -3.68%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV +0.140%E +0.062%K +0.112%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-21 22:40
GTbets🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.11%E -2.99%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.09%E -0.948%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 22:54
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.11%E -2.99%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.09%E -0.948%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 22:39
BetUS🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -5.11%E -2.99%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.09%E -0.948%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 22:39
DraftKings🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.09%E -0.948%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-21 22:55
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.22%E -3.68%K -9.01%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.09%E -0.948%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-21 22:55
Caesars🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -5.11%E -2.99%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -2.98%E -1.36%K -2.52%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-21 22:48
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.11%E -2.99%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 22:39
BetMGM🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.11%E -2.99%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 22:50
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 22:40
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 22:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 22:44
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.31%E -2.00%K -3.75%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-21 22:44
FanDuel🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.87%EV -2.33%E -1.32%K -3.07%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.13%EV -4.76%E -2.22%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-21 22:50
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.00%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.65%E -2.66%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 22:55
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.00%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.65%E -2.66%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 22:54
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.00%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.65%E -2.66%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 22:55
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.00%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.65%E -2.66%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 22:55
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -4.00%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -5.65%E -2.66%K -5.04%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 22:55
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -6.77%E -4.03%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -5.65%E -2.66%K -5.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 22:54
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -6.77%E -4.03%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -5.65%E -2.66%K -5.04%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-21 22:54
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -1.78%E -1.00%K -2.31%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-21 21:25
SportsBet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.44%E -1.98%K -4.65%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-21 22:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.00%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 22:44
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.00%E -2.31%K -5.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-21 22:50
Fliff🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -5.11%E -2.99%K -7.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-21 22:55
Betr (AU)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.33%E -4.39%K -10.93%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.54%E -3.11%K -5.94%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-21 22:54
ReBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -2.89%E -1.65%K -3.85%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -6.98%E -3.34%K -6.40%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-21 21:25
Pinnacle🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.49%EV -0.112%E -0.062%K -0.140%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 46.51%EV -7.87%E -3.80%K -7.36%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-21 22:30
LeoVegas🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -5.66%E -3.33%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -8.76%E -4.27%K -8.34%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-21 22:49
MyBookie.ag🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -0.112%E -0.062%K -0.140%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -10.10%E -5.00%K -9.90%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-21 22:03
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.77I 56.50%NM 56.19%2.27I 44.05%NM 43.81%0.6%2026-08-21 22:44
ProphetX◎1.78I 56.18%NM 55.83%2.25I 44.44%NM 44.17%0.6%2026-08-21 22:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%2.7%2026-08-21 22:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%2.7%2026-08-21 22:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%2.7%2026-08-21 22:54
Matchbook◎1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%3.9%2026-08-21 22:55