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New England Patriots v Indianapolis Colts
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
New England Patriots (Local)
Prediction 38.78%2.58fair odd
EV -1.89%
Edge -0.747%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.12%38.93%38.81%41.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.312.432.402.5343.29%41.11%41.67%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Indianapolis Colts (Visit)
Prediction 61.22%1.63fair odd
EV -0.821%
Edge -0.507%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.78%61.07%61.19%61.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6266.67%63.71%63.69%61.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New England Patriots (Local): 38.78%; Indianapolis Colts (Visit): 61.22%. For Indianapolis Colts (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.62, with an expected value of -0.821%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -1.89%E -0.747%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.88%E -2.47%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-13 23:28 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 38.29%EV -1.89%E -0.747%K -1.24%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.71%EV -3.88%E -2.47%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-08-13 23:29 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.51I 39.84%NM 38.48%EV -2.67%E -1.06%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.52%EV -3.88%E -2.47%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.5% | 2026-08-13 23:29 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.88%E -2.47%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-13 23:29 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.88%E -2.47%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-13 23:22 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.57%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 61.43%EV -3.88%E -2.47%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-13 23:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.49%E -2.88%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-13 22:24 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.49%E -2.88%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-13 23:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.49%E -2.88%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-13 23:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%EV -4.49%E -2.88%K -8.03%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-13 23:35 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 38.12%EV -3.05%E -1.22%K -2.04%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.88%EV -5.72%E -3.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-13 23:26 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -3.44%E -1.38%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -5.72%E -3.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 22:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11%EV -4.60%E -1.87%K -3.15%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89%EV -3.27%E -2.07%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-13 23:09 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -4.99%E -2.04%K -3.44%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -3.88%E -2.47%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-13 21:14 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.00%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.00%EV -2.05%E -1.28%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-13 23:29 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.27%E -2.07%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-13 21:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -3.27%E -2.07%K -5.64%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-13 21:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.72%E -3.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-13 22:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.54I 64.94%NM 60.91%EV -5.72%E -3.71%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-13 22:34 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -6.93%E -2.89%K -4.95%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -8.17%E -5.45%K -16.34%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-13 21:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -7.71%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -2.05%E -1.28%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-13 23:19 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -7.71%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -2.05%E -1.28%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-13 23:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -7.71%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -2.05%E -1.28%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-13 23:19 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -7.71%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -2.05%E -1.28%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-13 23:19 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -7.71%E -3.24%K -5.58%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -2.05%E -1.28%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-13 23:19 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -8.87%E -3.77%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -2.05%E -1.28%K -3.41%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 23:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -8.87%E -3.77%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -2.66%E -1.67%K -4.51%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 23:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.43%EV -8.87%E -3.77%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.57%EV -6.33%E -4.14%K -11.95%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-08-13 23:29 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -8.87%E -3.77%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -6.94%E -4.57%K -13.35%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-13 23:35 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.31I 43.29%NM 41.22%EV -10.42%E -4.51%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.78%EV -0.821%E -0.507%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-13 01:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-08-13 23:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.41% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.59% | 3.2% | 2026-08-13 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89% | 3.9% | 2026-08-13 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89% | 3.9% | 2026-08-13 23:35 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 39.11% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.89% | 3.9% | 2026-08-13 23:35 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.24I 44.64%NM 39.95% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 60.05% | 11.8% | 2026-08-13 23:30 |