The School of Odds
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New England Patriots v Indianapolis Colts

2026-08-13 23:30 UTC — NFL Preseason

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 54.69%1.83fair odd
EV -3.21%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -4.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.26%54.71%54.74%56.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.731.731.7760.61%57.64%57.80%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Indianapolis Colts (Visit)

Prediction 45.31%2.21fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -2.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.00%45.29%45.26%45.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.082.122.132.1548.08%47.18%46.95%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New England Patriots (Local): 54.69%; Indianapolis Colts (Visit): 45.31%. For Indianapolis Colts (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.15, with an expected value of -2.58%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.21%E -1.81%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.84%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 19:00
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.21%E -1.81%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.84%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 17:35
Fanatics🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.21%E -1.81%K -4.16%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.84%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-07 18:00
FanDuel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-07 12:30
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.30%E -2.46%K -5.73%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.84%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-07 18:30
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.85%E -2.78%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.58%E -1.20%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-07 15:50
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.85%E -2.78%K -6.55%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-07 14:05
BetRivers🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 15:45
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 15:45
betPARX🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 15:48
Bally Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -3.03%E -1.42%K -2.66%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-07 16:05
SportsBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.39%E -3.12%K -7.39%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.93%E -1.86%K -3.51%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-07 12:25
NordicBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.75%E -2.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 17:10
Betsson🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.94%E -3.45%K -8.25%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.75%E -2.76%K -5.32%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-07 17:15
Paddy Power🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -9.77%E -5.92%K -15.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.84%E -2.31%K -4.40%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-07 12:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎1.00I 100.00%NM 66.67%2.00I 50.00%NM 33.33%50.0%2026-08-07 18:15