The School of Odds
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Jacksonville Jaguars v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Kickoff: 2026-08-28 23:38 UTC

Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 19–0 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacksonville Jaguars (Local)

Prediction 39.46%2.53fair odd
EV +0.625%
Edge +0.245%
Kelly +0.404%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.65%39.31%39.55%41.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.402.402.5544.44%41.70%41.67%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit)

Prediction 60.54%1.65fair odd
EV -3.14%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -5.23%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.90%60.69%60.45%62.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.571.6066.67%63.68%63.69%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Jacksonville Jaguars (Local): 39.46%; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit): 60.54%. For Jacksonville Jaguars (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.53. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.625%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
theScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV +0.625%E +0.245%K +0.404%G +0.003%1.54I 64.94%NM 62.35%EV -6.77%E -4.40%K -12.54%G +0.000%4.2%2026-08-28 22:25
MyBookie.ag🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.78%EV -0.558%E -0.222%K -0.367%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.22%EV -7.38%E -4.82%K -13.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 22:25
Everygame🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.35%E -0.539%K -0.898%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.74%E -2.35%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-28 22:18
BetAnything🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.88%EV -1.35%E -0.539%K -0.898%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 61.12%EV -3.74%E -2.35%K -6.34%G +0.000%2.9%2026-08-28 22:17
Pinnacle🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 38.77%EV -2.14%E -0.862%K -1.44%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 61.23%EV -4.95%E -3.16%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.0%2026-08-28 22:25
BetUS🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 39.26%EV -2.93%E -1.19%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.74%EV -3.74%E -2.35%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.5%2026-08-28 22:10
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%EV -3.32%E -1.36%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%EV -3.74%E -2.35%K -6.34%G +0.000%3.7%2026-08-28 22:15
Fanatics🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 39.05%EV -3.32%E -1.36%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.95%EV -4.95%E -3.16%K -8.69%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-28 22:30
Caesars🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.30%EV -3.72%E -1.52%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.70%EV -4.35%E -2.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-28 23:33
FanDuel🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -4.50%E -1.86%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -3.14%E -1.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%3.8%2026-08-28 23:30
ReBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 38.27%EV -4.50%E -1.86%K -3.17%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.73%EV -9.19%E -6.13%K -18.38%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-28 22:25
DraftKings🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.60%EV -4.90%E -2.03%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.40%EV -4.35%E -2.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-28 23:30
SportsBet🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -4.90%E -2.03%K -3.47%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -4.95%E -3.16%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-28 23:30
GTbets🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.29%E -2.21%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.35%E -2.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 23:30
Neds🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.29%E -2.21%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.35%E -2.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 22:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.29%E -2.21%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.35%E -2.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 22:20
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.29%E -2.21%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.35%E -2.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 22:19
PlayUp🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -5.29%E -2.21%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -4.35%E -2.75%K -7.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-28 22:15
BetMGM🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.29%E -2.21%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.95%E -3.16%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-28 22:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -5.29%E -2.21%K -3.78%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -4.95%E -3.16%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-28 23:30
BetRivers🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 40.20%EV -6.08%E -2.56%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.80%EV -3.14%E -1.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-28 23:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -6.08%E -2.56%K -4.41%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -4.95%E -3.16%K -8.69%G +0.000%5.7%2026-08-28 22:20
Betsson🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.27%E -3.09%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.56%E -3.56%K -9.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 22:30
NordicBet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.27%E -3.09%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.56%E -3.56%K -9.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 22:30
Fliff🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.27%E -3.09%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.56%E -3.56%K -9.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 23:30
Betr (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -7.27%E -3.09%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -5.56%E -3.56%K -9.93%G +0.000%6.7%2026-08-28 22:30
Dabble (AU)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.27%E -3.09%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.16%E -3.98%K -11.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 22:15
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -7.27%E -3.09%K -5.38%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -6.16%E -3.98%K -11.21%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-28 22:30
betPARX🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -8.06%E -3.46%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -3.14%E -1.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-28 23:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 40.71%EV -8.06%E -3.46%K -6.06%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.29%EV -3.14%E -1.96%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-28 23:35
Bally Bet🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.41%EV -9.24%E -4.02%K -7.11%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 59.59%EV -5.56%E -3.56%K -9.93%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-28 23:35
Paddy Power🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -11.21%E -4.98%K -8.97%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -4.95%E -3.16%K -8.69%G +0.000%8.1%2026-08-28 22:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.63%EV -11.21%E -4.98%K -8.97%G +0.000%1.54I 64.94%NM 59.37%EV -6.77%E -4.40%K -12.54%G +0.000%9.4%2026-08-28 23:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Novig◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%0.6%2026-08-28 23:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%1.0%2026-08-28 23:36
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%1.0%2026-08-28 23:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.52I 39.68%NM 39.28%1.63I 61.35%NM 60.72%1.0%2026-08-28 23:35
ProphetX◎2.54I 39.37%NM 38.35%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.65%2.7%2026-08-28 23:35
Matchbook◎2.48I 40.32%NM 39.07%1.59I 62.89%NM 60.93%3.2%2026-08-28 23:00