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Houston Texans v Las Vegas Raiders
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Houston Texans (Local)
Prediction 45.34%2.21fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.18%
Kelly -2.20%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.68%45.33%45.36%46.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.102.102.1550.00%47.71%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Las Vegas Raiders (Visit)
Prediction 54.66%1.83fair odd
EV -2.70%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -3.46%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.78
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.52%54.67%54.64%55.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.701.741.741.7858.82%57.33%57.47%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Houston Texans (Local): 45.34%; Las Vegas Raiders (Visit): 54.66%. For Houston Texans (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.15, with an expected value of -2.53%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.53%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-20 23:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.53%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-20 23:20 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.53%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-20 23:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.53%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-20 23:05 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.53%E -1.18%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-20 23:23 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -2.98%E -1.39%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-20 23:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.96%EV -3.43%E -1.61%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.04%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-20 23:46 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -3.43%E -1.61%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -5.98%E -3.48%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 23:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -3.43%E -1.61%K -3.04%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -5.98%E -3.48%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 23:08 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.89%E -1.83%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.79%E -2.15%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-20 23:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.89%E -1.83%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.79%E -2.15%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-20 23:50 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.89%E -1.83%K -3.47%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.79%E -2.15%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.79%E -2.28%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.25%E -1.83%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.79%E -2.28%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.25%E -1.83%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-20 23:54 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.79%E -2.28%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.34%E -2.48%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-20 21:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.79%E -2.28%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.34%E -2.48%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-20 21:24 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.79%E -2.28%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 23:55 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.79%E -2.28%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 23:59 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.79%E -2.28%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.43%E -3.14%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-20 23:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.70%E -2.74%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.98%E -3.48%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.70%E -2.74%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.98%E -3.48%K -8.30%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.15%E -2.97%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.79%E -2.15%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 23:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.15%E -2.97%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.79%E -2.15%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 23:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.15%E -2.97%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.79%E -2.15%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 23:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.15%E -2.97%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.79%E -2.15%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 23:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.95%EV -6.15%E -2.97%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.05%EV -3.79%E -2.15%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 23:54 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.48%EV -7.06%E -3.44%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.52%EV -2.70%E -1.52%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -7.06%E -3.44%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.25%E -1.83%K -4.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -7.06%E -3.44%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -4.89%E -2.81%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -7.06%E -3.44%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -6.53%E -3.82%K -9.19%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-20 23:59 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%EV -8.42%E -4.17%K -8.26%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%EV -7.07%E -4.16%K -10.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-08-20 23:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.33%E -4.66%K -9.33%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.43%E -3.14%K -7.44%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-20 23:34 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73% | 0.4% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.19I 45.66%NM 45.25% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.75% | 0.9% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64% | 1.1% | 2026-08-20 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64% | 1.1% | 2026-08-20 23:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64% | 1.1% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59% | 2.9% | 2026-08-21 00:00 |