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Cleveland Browns v New England Patriots
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cleveland Browns (Local)
Prediction 43.71%2.29fair odd
EV -1.65%
Edge -0.732%
Kelly -1.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.89%43.83%43.73%45.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.162.152.2547.62%46.27%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
New England Patriots (Visit)
Prediction 56.29%1.78fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.856%
Kelly -2.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.92%56.17%56.27%57.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.701.701.7560.61%58.78%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Browns (Local): 43.71%; New England Patriots (Visit): 56.29%. For New England Patriots (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.75, with an expected value of -1.50%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.65%E -0.732%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.87%E -2.88%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-27 19:30 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.65%E -0.732%K -1.32%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -4.87%E -2.88%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-08-27 22:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.75%E -2.19%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-27 14:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.75%E -2.19%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-28 00:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.75%E -2.19%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-28 00:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.75%E -2.19%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-28 00:01 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.75%E -2.19%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-25 16:28 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.31%E -2.54%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.87%E -2.88%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -4.87%E -2.88%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.44%E -3.24%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-27 19:31 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.83%E -1.74%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.44%E -3.24%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-27 19:31 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.19I 45.66%NM 43.85%EV -4.27%E -1.95%K -3.59%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.15%EV -3.75%E -2.19%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-28 00:01 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -5.14%E -2.37%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.31%E -2.54%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-27 17:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.78%EV -5.14%E -2.37%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.22%EV -4.87%E -2.88%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.06%E -1.18%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-27 23:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.19%E -1.85%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-27 23:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.75%E -2.19%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-27 23:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.31%E -2.54%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-28 00:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.31%E -2.54%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-27 13:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.87%E -2.88%K -7.06%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-28 00:01 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.02%E -2.80%K -5.23%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.00%E -3.59%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-28 00:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -6.45%E -3.02%K -5.66%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -1.50%E -0.856%K -2.00%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-28 00:01 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -7.33%E -3.46%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -2.06%E -1.18%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-28 00:01 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -7.33%E -3.46%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -2.06%E -1.18%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-28 00:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -7.33%E -3.46%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -2.06%E -1.18%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-28 00:01 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.08%EV -7.33%E -3.46%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.92%EV -2.06%E -1.18%K -2.78%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-28 00:01 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.21%EV -7.33%E -3.46%K -6.54%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.79%EV -5.44%E -3.24%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-27 23:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -8.20%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.31%E -2.54%K -6.16%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -8.20%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.44%E -3.24%K -8.00%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-28 00:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.20%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.00%E -3.59%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-08-27 23:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.20%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.13%E -4.32%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-27 22:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.20%E -3.91%K -7.46%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -7.13%E -4.32%K -10.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.36% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.64% | 1.5% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.50% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 56.50% | 1.7% | 2026-08-28 00:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92% | 2.2% | 2026-08-27 23:59 |