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Cleveland Browns v Buffalo Bills
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Cleveland Browns (Local)
Prediction 59.67%1.68fair odd
EV -1.54%
Edge -0.936%
Kelly -2.38%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.23%59.62%59.67%61.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.601.611.6563.69%62.45%62.11%60.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Buffalo Bills (Visit)
Prediction 40.33%2.48fair odd
EV +0.422%
Edge +0.170%
Kelly +0.283%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.49
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.97%40.38%40.33%41.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.362.352.4944.44%42.30%42.55%40.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Cleveland Browns (Local): 59.67%; Buffalo Bills (Visit): 40.33%. For Buffalo Bills (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.48. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.49, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.422%.
Sportsbook Odds (34 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -5.13%E -3.22%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV +0.422%E +0.170%K +0.283%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-08-22 11:49 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 61.03%EV -5.13%E -3.22%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.49I 40.16%NM 38.97%EV +0.422%E +0.170%K +0.283%G +0.001% | 3.1% | 2026-08-22 11:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 60.20%EV -4.53%E -2.83%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.80%EV -2.40%E -0.992%K -1.69%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 15:09 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.55%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.41I 41.49%NM 39.45%EV -2.80%E -1.16%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.33%E -2.06%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-22 14:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.70%EV -3.33%E -2.06%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.30%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-08-22 14:14 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 15:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.85%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.15%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.13%E -3.22%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.72%E -3.62%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 15:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.72%E -3.62%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 15:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -5.72%E -3.62%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -3.21%E -1.34%K -2.29%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 15:17 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 60.05%EV -5.13%E -3.22%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.39I 41.84%NM 39.95%EV -3.61%E -1.51%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-22 14:32 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -3.33%E -2.06%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV -4.01%E -1.69%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-22 14:44 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.01%E -1.69%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-22 14:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.33%E -2.06%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.22%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 13:09 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.33%E -2.06%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.22%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 13:09 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.19%EV -3.33%E -2.06%K -5.38%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.81%EV -5.22%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-22 15:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.22%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-22 13:10 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.34%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.66%EV -5.22%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.53%E -2.83%K -7.55%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.22%E -2.22%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.24%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.34I 42.74%NM 40.76%EV -5.63%E -2.40%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 58.69%EV -2.14%E -1.31%K -3.35%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 41.31%EV -6.03%E -2.59%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.03%E -2.59%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 11:49 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.03%E -2.59%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 11:49 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.03%E -2.59%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 11:50 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.03%E -2.59%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 11:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 59.14%EV -3.93%E -2.44%K -6.45%G +0.000% | 2.33I 42.92%NM 40.86%EV -6.03%E -2.59%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-22 11:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.72%E -3.62%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.77%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.49%EV -5.72%E -3.62%K -9.87%G +0.000% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 40.51%EV -6.43%E -2.77%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.54%E -0.936%K -2.38%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-22 15:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -5.13%E -3.22%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-22 15:09 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -7.24%E -3.15%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-08-22 15:19 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.32%E -4.02%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.26%E -4.11%K -7.41%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-08-22 14:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.67I 59.88%NM 59.56% | 2.46I 40.65%NM 40.44% | 0.5% | 2026-08-22 15:09 |
| Novig◎ | 1.65I 60.61%NM 59.95% | 2.47I 40.49%NM 40.05% | 1.1% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69% | 1.6% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.31% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 40.69% | 1.6% | 2026-08-22 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.11% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 40.89% | 1.9% | 2026-08-22 15:09 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.73% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 41.27% | 4.5% | 2026-08-22 15:09 |