Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Commanders v Atlanta Falcons

2026-12-20 18:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

64%

36%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Commanders (Local)

Prediction 63.66%1.57fair odd

EV -1.97%

Edge -1.28%

Kelly -3.64%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

62.25%63.66%63.66%65.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.451.501.501.5468.97%66.89%66.89%64.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Atlanta Falcons (Visit)

Prediction 36.34%2.75fair odd

EV -1.88%

Edge -0.695%

Kelly -1.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

34.94%36.34%36.34%37.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.542.622.622.7039.37%38.17%38.17%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Washington Commanders (Local): 63.66%; Atlanta Falcons (Visit): 36.34%. For Atlanta Falcons (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.75. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.70, with an expected value of -1.88%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -1.97%E -1.28%K -3.64%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -7.69%E -3.03%K -4.99%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-17 22:24
Caesars🎯	1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -7.70%E -5.31%K -17.10%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -1.88%E -0.695%K -1.10%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-29 04:28

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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