The School of Odds
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Pittsburgh Steelers

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 17:02 UTC

Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19–26 Pittsburgh Steelers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

59 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local)

Prediction 44.31%2.26fair odd
EV -0.295%
Edge -0.131%
Kelly -0.236%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.75%44.33%44.33%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.892.152.152.2552.91%46.57%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit)

Prediction 55.69%1.80fair odd
EV -0.878%
Edge -0.493%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.55%55.67%55.67%57.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.711.711.7863.69%58.44%58.48%56.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local): 44.31%; Pittsburgh Steelers (Visit): 55.69%. For Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.26. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -0.295%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
MyBookie.ag🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -0.295%E -0.131%K -0.236%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -6.45%E -3.84%K -9.48%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 16:48
Pinnacle🎯2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -0.738%E -0.330%K -0.595%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -3.66%E -2.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.4%2026-10-18 16:50
Coolbet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 44.33%EV -2.07%E -0.936%K -1.71%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 55.67%EV -1.99%E -1.13%K -2.62%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-18 17:00
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 16:59
GTbets🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 16:59
Bovada🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 16:08
BetAnything🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 16:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 16:39
LowVig.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 16:44
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 16:44
BetUS🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-18 16:44
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 16:58
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 16:59
betfred_uk🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.89%E -3.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-18 16:59
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.00%E -4.19%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:59
Fliff🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.51%E -1.14%K -2.09%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -7.00%E -4.19%K -10.45%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:04
ReBet🎯2.19I 45.66%NM 44.42%EV -2.95%E -1.35%K -2.48%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.58%EV -2.55%E -1.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-18 16:45
SportsBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -3.40%E -1.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.89%E -3.48%K -8.54%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 17:00
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.40%E -1.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.45%E -3.84%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 16:59
NordicBet🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -3.40%E -1.56%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -6.45%E -3.84%K -9.48%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 16:59
Caesars🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 44.47%EV -4.28%E -1.98%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.53%EV -3.66%E -2.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 16:39
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.10%E -1.78%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 16:35
Everygame🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.10%E -1.78%K -4.20%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 16:11
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.66%E -2.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 16:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.66%E -2.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 16:09
Unibet (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -3.66%E -2.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 16:44
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.22%E -2.45%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 16:09
Neds🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.22%E -2.45%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 16:09
Dabble (AU)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -4.22%E -2.45%K -5.86%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 16:04
BetMGM🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 16:40
Fanatics🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.78%E -2.79%K -6.73%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 16:09
Paddy Power🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:59
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:40
William Hill🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:44
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:39
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:39
TAB🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 16:44
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -4.73%E -2.20%K -4.11%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -7.00%E -4.19%K -10.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 16:44
Unibet (NL)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -5.17%E -2.42%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -0.878%E -0.493%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-18 16:29
Unibet (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -5.17%E -2.42%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -0.878%E -0.493%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-18 16:29
Svenska Spel🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -5.17%E -2.42%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -0.878%E -0.493%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-18 16:29
ATG (SE)🎯2.14I 46.73%NM 45.41%EV -5.17%E -2.42%K -4.53%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 54.59%EV -0.878%E -0.493%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-18 16:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -1.99%E -1.13%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 16:29
Codere (IT)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.06%E -2.86%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-18 16:44
Bet Right🎯2.11I 47.39%NM 45.05%EV -6.50%E -3.08%K -5.86%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.95%EV -3.66%E -2.12%K -5.02%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 16:59
BetRivers🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.94%E -3.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.55%E -1.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 16:29
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.94%E -3.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.55%E -1.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 16:29
betPARX🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.94%E -3.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.55%E -1.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 16:29
Bally Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -6.94%E -3.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -2.55%E -1.46%K -3.40%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 16:29
Betway🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -6.94%E -3.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -3.10%E -1.78%K -4.20%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 16:39
Marathon Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.94%E -3.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.22%E -2.45%K -5.86%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 16:59
Bet Victor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.94%E -3.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 15:59
betano_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.94%E -3.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.33%E -3.14%K -7.62%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 15:59
picklebet_au🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.94%E -3.31%K -6.31%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.00%E -4.19%K -10.45%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-18 16:44
Betclic (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.59%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.72%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 55.41%EV -8.12%E -4.92%K -12.49%G +0.000%9.4%2026-10-18 16:45
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.44%EV -9.16%E -4.47%K -8.72%G +0.000%1.64I 60.98%NM 55.56%EV -8.67%E -5.29%K -13.55%G +0.000%9.8%2026-10-18 16:59
NetBet (FR)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.90%EV -11.37%E -5.69%K -11.37%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 55.10%EV -9.23%E -5.66%K -14.65%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-18 16:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.89I 52.91%NM 45.38%EV -16.25%E -8.60%K -18.26%G +0.000%1.57I 63.69%NM 54.62%EV -12.57%E -8.01%K -22.06%G +0.000%16.6%2026-10-18 16:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65%0.3%2026-10-18 16:59
Novig◎2.30I 43.48%NM 43.21%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.79%0.6%2026-10-18 16:59
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%0.7%2026-10-18 17:00
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44%0.7%2026-10-18 16:59
Matchbook◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.92%1.77I 56.50%NM 56.08%0.7%2026-10-18 16:59
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78%1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22%1.1%2026-10-18 16:59
Polymarket◎2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47%1.2%2026-10-18 16:59
Smarkets◎2.24I 44.64%NM 43.86%1.75I 57.14%NM 56.14%1.8%2026-10-18 16:59
Kalshi◎2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.2%2026-10-18 16:39
BetOpenly◎2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%2.9%2026-10-18 16:54