Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Green Bay Packers

2026-10-04 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

48%

52%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local)

Prediction 47.84%2.09fair odd

EV -1.92%

Edge -0.939%

Kelly -1.83%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

46.75%47.84%47.84%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.911.981.992.0552.36%50.42%50.25%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Green Bay Packers (Visit)

Prediction 52.16%1.92fair odd

EV -4.55%

Edge -2.49%

Kelly -5.48%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.07%52.16%52.16%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.801.821.821.8355.56%55.05%54.95%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local): 47.84%; Green Bay Packers (Visit): 52.16%. For Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.05, with an expected value of -1.92%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.92%E -0.939%K -1.83%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.12%E -3.40%K -7.64%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-07-06 11:15
Betr (AU)🎯	1.99I 50.25%NM 47.77%EV -4.79%E -2.41%K -4.84%G +0.000%	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.23%EV -5.07%E -2.79%K -6.19%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-08-08 15:05
Caesars🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -8.62%E -4.51%K -9.47%G +0.000%	1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.55%E -2.49%K -5.48%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-05-15 22:14

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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