The School of Odds
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New York Jets v Buffalo Bills

2026-11-15 18:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Jets (Local)

Prediction 27.25%3.67fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.531%
Kelly -0.735%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.68%27.25%27.25%27.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.503.503.6029.41%28.57%28.57%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Buffalo Bills (Visit)

Prediction 72.75%1.37fair odd
EV -4.69%
Edge -3.58%
Kelly -15.14%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.19%72.75%72.75%73.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.311.311.311.3176.34%76.34%76.34%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New York Jets (Local): 27.25%; Buffalo Bills (Visit): 72.75%. For New York Jets (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.67. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.60, with an expected value of -1.91%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -1.91%E -0.531%K -0.735%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -4.69%E -3.58%K -15.14%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-06 22:19
Caesars🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -7.36%E -2.17%K -3.07%G +0.000%1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.69%E -3.58%K -15.14%G +0.000%5.7%2026-06-22 22:37
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.