The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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New England Patriots v New York Jets

Kickoff: 2026-10-18 17:02 UTC

Final: New England Patriots 26–19 New York Jets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (20 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 74.61%1.34fair odd
EV -1.52%
Edge -1.15%
Kelly -4.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.32

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.47%74.64%74.66%76.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.271.281.3286.96%78.49%78.13%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Jets (Visit)

Prediction 25.39%3.94fair odd
EV +1.56%
Edge +0.391%
Kelly +0.521%
Growth +0.008%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%25.36%25.34%26.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.353.773.804.0029.85%26.54%26.32%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New England Patriots (Local): 74.61%; New York Jets (Visit): 25.39%. For New York Jets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.94. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.56%.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
888sport🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.56%E +0.391%K +0.521%G +0.008%5.0%2026-10-18 13:34
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.56%E +0.391%K +0.521%G +0.008%5.0%2026-10-18 13:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.56%E +0.391%K +0.521%G +0.008%5.0%2026-10-18 13:35
William Hill🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +1.56%E +0.391%K +0.521%G +0.008%5.0%2026-10-18 13:34
ReBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.38%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.62%EV +0.294%E +0.074%K +0.100%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-18 16:19
MyBookie.ag🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV +0.294%E +0.074%K +0.100%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 11:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -0.975%E -0.250%K -0.336%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-17 15:45
Unibet (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -0.975%E -0.250%K -0.336%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-17 15:45
Svenska Spel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -0.975%E -0.250%K -0.336%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-17 15:45
ATG (SE)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -0.975%E -0.250%K -0.336%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-17 15:45
Pinnacle🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 74.85%EV -3.01%E -2.31%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.87I 25.84%NM 25.15%EV -1.74%E -0.449%K -0.605%G +0.000%2.8%2026-10-18 16:35
LowVig.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -2.24%E -0.583%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 16:44
BetOnline.ag🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -2.24%E -0.583%K -0.788%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 16:44
Fliff🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64%EV -7.48%E -6.04%K -31.19%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36%EV -2.24%E -0.583%K -0.788%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-18 13:53
SportsBet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -3.01%E -0.787%K -1.07%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 17:00
Coolbet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 74.22%EV -1.52%E -1.15%K -4.74%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-18 14:14
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 16:59
GTbets🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 15:19
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 16:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-17 13:50
BetAnything🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 13:35
Everygame🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 12:10
Unibet (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 13:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-17 15:45
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 16:59
Coral🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 16:59
theScore Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 16:59
Bovada🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 16:58
picklebet_au🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 16:04
betfred_uk🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 16:09
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 15:45
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 15:44
betPARX🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 15:45
Bally Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-17 15:45
Tipico (DE)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.51%E -0.925%K -1.26%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-12 00:59
DraftKings🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 14:14
Caesars🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-12 05:09
BetUS🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 16:59
Fanatics🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 13:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-18 09:04
Betway🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -4.78%E -1.28%K -1.74%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-18 14:29
Paddy Power🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-18 14:34
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-18 14:34
Betr (AU)🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-18 14:14
Codere (IT)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.25%E -4.13%K -19.43%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.05%E -1.64%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 13:34
Dabble (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.01%E -2.31%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 11:54
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.01%E -2.31%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.01%E -2.31%K -10.03%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.7%2026-10-18 16:59
TAB🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 15:10
Bet Right🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.75%E -2.91%K -12.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 14:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.50%E -3.52%K -16.07%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 13:39
Bet Victor🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 16:32
betano_uk🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-17 16:49
LeoVegas🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.53%EV -8.23%E -6.69%K -35.79%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.47%EV -8.59%E -2.39%K -3.30%G +0.000%9.1%2026-10-18 15:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.74%E -5.39%K -26.95%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.13%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-18 16:33
NetBet (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 74.31%EV -9.72%E -8.04%K -46.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.69%EV -11.13%E -3.18%K -4.45%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-18 16:54
PMU (FR)🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 74.44%EV -14.20%E -12.35%K -94.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 25.56%EV -14.94%E -4.46%K -6.36%G +0.000%16.8%2026-10-17 15:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
ProphetX◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.65%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.35%0.1%2026-10-18 16:59
Novig◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.56%4.08I 24.51%NM 24.44%0.3%2026-10-18 15:35
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.31I 76.34%NM 75.79%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.21%0.7%2026-10-18 15:54
Polymarket◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-10-12 01:05
Kalshi◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-10-14 14:30
Matchbook◎1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81%0.8%2026-10-18 16:59
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.93%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.07%1.3%2026-10-18 16:59
Smarkets◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-10-18 16:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53%1.9%2026-10-18 17:00
BetOpenly◎1.32I 75.76%NM 74.22%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.78%2.1%2026-10-18 16:59