The School of Odds
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New England Patriots v New York Jets

2026-10-18 17:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 78.79%1.27fair odd
EV -2.30%
Edge -1.85%
Kelly -9.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.24

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
77.62%78.79%78.79%79.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.191.211.211.2484.03%82.42%82.64%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New York Jets (Visit)

Prediction 21.21%4.72fair odd
EV +0.739%
Edge +0.156%
Kelly +0.197%
Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 4.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.03%21.21%21.21%22.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.304.504.454.7523.26%22.22%22.47%21.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New England Patriots (Local): 78.79%; New York Jets (Visit): 21.21%. For New York Jets (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.72. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.75, producing a positive expected value of +0.739%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Caesars🎯1.19I 84.03%NM 79.97%EV -6.24%E -5.24%K -32.83%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 20.03%EV +0.739%E +0.156%K +0.197%G +0.001%5.1%2026-06-15 22:47
Betr (AU)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 78.62%EV -4.66%E -3.85%K -22.20%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.38%EV -5.62%E -1.26%K -1.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-08 20:45
DraftKings🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.62%EV -2.30%E -1.85%K -9.58%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.38%EV -8.80%E -2.05%K -2.67%G +0.000%3.9%2026-09-08 21:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Polymarket◎1.04I 96.15%NM 70.11%2.44I 40.98%NM 29.89%37.1%2026-09-09 17:30