New England Patriots v Denver Broncos

2027-01-03 18:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 56.05%1.78fair odd

EV -2.48%

Edge -1.43%

Kelly -3.35%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.15%56.05%56.14%56.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.671.701.681.7460%59%60%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Denver Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 43.95%2.28fair odd

EV -3.30%

Edge -1.50%

Kelly -2.75%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.15%43.95%43.86%44.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.142.162.152.2047%46%47%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -2.48%E -1.43%K -3.35%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.94%E -2.77%K -5.21%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-20 13:07
Coolbet	1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.84%E -3.48%K -8.59%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.50%E -2.56%K -4.78%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-07-20 13:10
Caesars	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.40%E -3.83%K -9.56%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.30%E -1.50%K -2.75%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-20 13:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.