Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots v Denver Broncos

2027-01-03 18:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

56%

44%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 56.00%1.79fair odd

EV -2.56%

Edge -1.47%

Kelly -3.46%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

55.15%56.00%56.00%56.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.671.711.711.7459.88%58.65%58.65%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Denver Broncos (Visit)

Prediction 44.00%2.27fair odd

EV -3.20%

Edge -1.46%

Kelly -2.67%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.15%44.00%44.00%44.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.142.172.172.2046.73%46.08%46.08%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: New England Patriots (Local): 56.00%; Denver Broncos (Visit): 44.00%. For New England Patriots (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.79. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.74, with an expected value of -2.56%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -2.56%E -1.47%K -3.46%G +0.000%	2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.84%E -2.73%K -5.12%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-07-20 13:07
Caesars🎯	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.48%E -3.88%K -9.67%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.20%E -1.46%K -2.67%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-20 13:09

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.