Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots v Buffalo Bills

2026-12-06 21:25 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

50%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New England Patriots (Local)

Prediction 50.37%1.99fair odd

EV -2.29%

Edge -1.18%

Kelly -2.44%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.94

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

48.13%50.37%50.37%52.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.821.881.881.9454.95%53.19%53.19%51.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Buffalo Bills (Visit)

Prediction 49.63%2.01fair odd

EV +0.260%

Edge +0.129%

Kelly +0.255%

Growth +0.001%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

47.40%49.63%49.63%51.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.801.911.912.0255.56%52.36%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -8.33%E -4.58%K -10.16%G +0.000%	2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV +0.260%E +0.129%K +0.255%G +0.001%	4.5%	2026-07-29 04:29
Caesars	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.13%EV -2.29%E -1.18%K -2.44%G +0.000%	1.80I 55.56%NM 51.87%EV -10.66%E -5.92%K -13.32%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-29 04:28

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.