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Minnesota Vikings v Detroit Lions

2026-12-21 01:20 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Minnesota Vikings (Local)

Prediction 46.14%2.17fair odd
EV -3.11%
Edge -1.48%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.88%46.14%46.14%47.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.062.062.1049.50%48.54%48.54%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Detroit Lions (Visit)

Prediction 53.86%1.86fair odd
EV -1.97%
Edge -1.08%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.60%53.86%53.86%55.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.771.771.8258.48%56.66%56.66%54.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Minnesota Vikings (Local): 46.14%; Detroit Lions (Visit): 53.86%. For Detroit Lions (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.86. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.82, with an expected value of -1.97%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -3.11%E -1.48%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -7.90%E -4.62%K -11.12%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-29 04:28
DraftKings🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -6.80%E -3.37%K -6.67%G +0.000%1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -1.97%E -1.08%K -2.41%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-09 23:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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