The School of Odds

Los Angeles Chargers v San Francisco 49ers

2026-12-18 01:15 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Los Angeles Chargers (Local)

Prediction 57.27%1.75fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -3.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
56.41%57.27%57.27%58.14%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.621.661.661.7062%60%60%59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

San Francisco 49ers (Visit)

Prediction 42.73%2.34fair odd
EV -3.87%
Edge -1.72%
Kelly -3.09%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.86%42.73%42.73%43.59%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.202.232.232.2545%45%45%44%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -2.63%E -1.55%K -3.76%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -6.00%E -2.73%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.3%2026-05-15 00:30
Caesars1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -7.21%E -4.45%K -11.64%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -3.87%E -1.72%K -3.09%G +0.000%6.2%2026-06-22 22:37
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.