Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Las Vegas Raiders v Buffalo Bills

Inicio: 2026-10-18 20:25 UTC

Final: Las Vegas Raiders 30–33 Buffalo Bills

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (21 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Las Vegas Raiders (Local)

Predicción 32.50%3.08momio equitativo
EV +1.41%
Ventaja +0.453%
Kelly +0.666%
Crecimiento +0.009%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.12

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
30.34%32.51%32.49%35.77%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.642.942.953.1237.88%34.01%33.90%32.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Buffalo Bills (Visitante)

Predicción 67.50%1.48momio equitativo
EV -0.781%
Ventaja -0.531%
Kelly -1.66%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.47

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
64.23%67.49%67.51%69.66%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.261.411.411.4779.37%71.14%70.92%68.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Las Vegas Raiders (Local): 32.50%; Buffalo Bills (Visitante): 67.50%. Para Las Vegas Raiders (Local), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 3.08. 7 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 3.12, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +1.41%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
ReBet🎯3.12I 32.05%NM 31.13%EV +1.41%E +0.453%K +0.666%G +0.009%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.87%EV -4.83%E -3.43%K -11.78%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-18 19:37
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV +0.762%E +0.246%K +0.363%G +0.003%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-18 16:19
888sport🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.762%E +0.246%K +0.363%G +0.003%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.21%E -6.03%K -22.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 19:30
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.762%E +0.246%K +0.363%G +0.003%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.21%E -6.03%K -22.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 19:29
888sport (SE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.762%E +0.246%K +0.363%G +0.003%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.21%E -6.03%K -22.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 19:34
William Hill🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV +0.762%E +0.246%K +0.363%G +0.003%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -8.21%E -6.03%K -22.79%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-18 19:30
Tipico (DE)🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV +0.762%E +0.246%K +0.363%G +0.003%1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -8.88%E -6.58%K -25.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-10-18 19:29
MyBookie.ag🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.39%EV -0.538%E -0.176%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.61%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 19:39
SportsBet🎯3.06I 32.68%NM 31.08%EV -0.538%E -0.176%K -0.261%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.92%EV -6.86%E -4.97%K -18.04%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-18 20:24
Unibet (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -0.863%E -0.283%K -0.421%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-15 22:00
Unibet (NL)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -0.863%E -0.283%K -0.421%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-15 21:59
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -0.863%E -0.283%K -0.421%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-15 22:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.77%EV -0.863%E -0.283%K -0.421%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 68.23%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.2%2026-10-15 22:00
FanDuel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.863%E -0.283%K -0.421%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 20:25
Unibet (UK)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.46%EV -0.863%E -0.283%K -0.421%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.54%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.2%2026-10-18 19:29
BetMGM🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.28%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.72%EV -3.48%E -2.43%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.3%2026-10-18 20:25
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 20:24
BetAnything🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 32.13%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.87%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-18 20:19
DraftKings🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.83%E -3.43%K -11.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 20:24
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.97%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 68.03%EV -4.83%E -3.43%K -11.78%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-15 22:00
Paddy Power🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 17:59
BetRivers🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:00
Unibet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:00
betPARX🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:00
Bally Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-15 22:00
Coral🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 20:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -2.49%E -0.830%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 17:59
Coolbet🎯2.98I 33.56%NM 32.88%EV -3.14%E -1.05%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.12%EV -1.46%E -0.997%K -3.16%G +0.000%2.1%2026-10-18 20:24
Everygame🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.65%EV -4.11%E -1.39%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 67.35%EV -3.48%E -2.43%K -8.09%G +0.000%3.8%2026-10-16 19:00
Caesars🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.11%E -1.39%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-14 03:35
Dabble (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.49%EV -4.11%E -1.39%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.51%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.3%2026-10-18 20:24
GTbets🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.34%EV -4.11%E -1.39%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.66%EV -4.83%E -3.43%K -11.78%G +0.000%4.8%2026-10-18 14:00
Codere (IT)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.87%EV -4.11%E -1.39%K -2.11%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 68.13%EV -6.86%E -4.97%K -18.04%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-18 19:34
Betsson🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.64%EV -5.41%E -1.86%K -2.83%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.36%EV -4.83%E -3.43%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-18 20:24
Fanatics🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -3.48%E -2.43%K -8.09%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-18 20:09
Betr (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 20:24
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 20:25
Neds🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 20:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 02:14
TAB🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-18 06:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -5.74%E -1.98%K -3.02%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 20:24
LowVig.ag🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -6.06%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -2.81%E -1.95%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 20:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 33.26%EV -6.06%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.74%EV -2.81%E -1.95%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.0%2026-10-18 20:25
NordicBet🎯2.89I 34.60%NM 32.79%EV -6.06%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.21%EV -4.83%E -3.43%K -11.78%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 20:25
Pinnacle🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.87%EV -6.71%E -2.34%K -3.59%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 66.13%EV -0.781%E -0.531%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.9%2026-10-18 20:24
BetUS🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.72%EV -7.36%E -2.58%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 66.28%EV -2.13%E -1.47%K -4.73%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-18 20:25
Bovada🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -7.36%E -2.58%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -2.81%E -1.95%K -6.38%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-18 20:19
Bet Right🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.41%EV -7.36%E -2.58%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.59%EV -3.48%E -2.43%K -8.09%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-18 20:25
betfred_uk🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.26%EV -7.36%E -2.58%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 66.74%EV -4.16%E -2.93%K -9.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-18 20:24
Betway🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94%EV -7.36%E -2.58%K -3.98%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 67.06%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%6.5%2026-10-18 20:25
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 20:24
betano_uk🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -8.99%E -3.21%K -4.99%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-18 20:24
NetBet (FR)🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 32.44%EV -9.96%E -3.60%K -5.63%G +0.000%1.33I 75.19%NM 67.56%EV -10.23%E -7.69%K -31.00%G +0.000%11.3%2026-10-18 20:04
Betclic (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.41%EV -10.61%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.38I 72.46%NM 66.59%EV -6.86%E -4.97%K -18.04%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-18 19:59
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -10.61%E -3.86%K -6.07%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -8.21%E -6.03%K -22.79%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-18 20:24
Fliff🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.62%EV -12.24%E -4.53%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.38%EV -3.48%E -2.43%K -8.09%G +0.000%7.0%2026-10-18 20:25
picklebet_au🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -12.24%E -4.53%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -5.51%E -3.93%K -13.76%G +0.000%8.5%2026-10-18 19:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.82%EV -12.24%E -4.53%K -7.20%G +0.000%1.26I 79.37%NM 68.18%EV -14.95%E -11.87%K -57.52%G +0.000%16.4%2026-10-15 22:00
Marathon Bet🎯2.64I 37.88%NM 35.77%EV -14.19%E -5.37%K -8.65%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 64.23%EV -0.781%E -0.531%K -1.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-18 20:24
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (10)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Matchbook◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.17%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.83%0.3%2026-10-18 20:25
Novig◎3.13I 31.95%NM 31.81%1.46I 68.49%NM 68.19%0.4%2026-10-18 20:24
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%0.8%2026-10-18 20:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.98%0.8%2026-10-18 20:25
ProphetX◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.52%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.48%0.8%2026-10-18 20:25
Polymarket◎3.12I 32.05%NM 31.73%1.45I 68.97%NM 68.27%1.0%2026-10-18 16:19
Kalshi◎3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33%1.0%2026-10-18 20:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.37%1.46I 68.49%NM 67.63%1.3%2026-10-18 20:25
BetOpenly◎3.06I 32.68%NM 32.15%1.45I 68.97%NM 67.85%1.6%2026-10-18 20:24
Smarkets◎3.05I 32.79%NM 32.07%1.44I 69.44%NM 67.93%2.2%2026-10-18 20:25