Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacksonville Jaguars v Washington Commanders

2027-01-03 18:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

61%

39%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Jacksonville Jaguars (Local)

Prediction 60.95%1.64fair odd

EV -3.09%

Edge -1.94%

Kelly -5.24%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

59.64%60.95%60.95%62.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.541.561.561.5964.94%63.90%63.90%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Commanders (Visit)

Prediction 39.05%2.56fair odd

EV -0.812%

Edge -0.320%

Kelly -0.528%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.54

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

37.75%39.05%39.05%40.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.352.452.452.5442.55%40.90%40.90%39.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Jacksonville Jaguars (Local): 60.95%; Washington Commanders (Visit): 39.05%. For Washington Commanders (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.56. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.54, with an expected value of -0.812%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 59.64%EV -3.09%E -1.94%K -5.24%G +0.000%	2.35I 42.55%NM 40.36%EV -8.23%E -3.50%K -6.10%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-21 08:44
DraftKings🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25%EV -6.14%E -3.99%K -11.37%G +0.000%	2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75%EV -0.812%E -0.320%K -0.528%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-08-03 23:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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