Language:English
Indianapolis Colts v Houston Texans
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Indianapolis Colts (Local)
Prediction 47.08%2.12fair odd
EV -1.14%
Edge -0.544%
Kelly -1.04%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.45%47.21%47.12%48.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.832.032.032.1054.64%49.37%49.26%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Houston Texans (Visit)
Prediction 52.92%1.89fair odd
EV +0.557%
Edge +0.293%
Kelly +0.618%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 1.90
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.07%52.79%52.88%54.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.631.801.801.9061.35%55.58%55.56%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Indianapolis Colts (Local): 47.08%; Houston Texans (Visit): 52.92%. For Houston Texans (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.89. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.90, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.557%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.01I 49.75%NM 48.59%EV -5.38%E -2.68%K -5.32%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 51.41%EV +0.557%E +0.293%K +0.618%G +0.003% | 2.4% | 2026-09-27 16:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 48.30%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 51.70%EV -2.09%E -1.13%K -2.46%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-27 16:39 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.18%EV -3.02%E -1.47%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.84I 54.35%NM 52.82%EV -2.62%E -1.42%K -3.12%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.02%E -1.47%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.02%E -1.47%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.02%E -1.47%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.04%EV -3.02%E -1.47%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.96%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-27 16:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-27 16:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-27 16:52 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-27 16:39 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -10.09%E -5.28%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -3.15%E -1.72%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.15%EV -3.97%E -1.94%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.85%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 16:35 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.40%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 52.60%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 16:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.97I 50.76%NM 48.02%EV -7.26%E -3.69%K -7.49%G +0.000% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 51.98%EV -3.68%E -2.02%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-27 16:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.89%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.11%EV -4.21%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.01%EV -3.97%E -1.94%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.99%EV -4.21%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -4.21%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 47.14%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 52.86%EV -4.21%E -2.32%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-27 11:39 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 46.63%EV -3.02%E -1.47%K -2.85%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.37%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-27 13:49 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-24 16:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 15:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 13:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 15:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 15:10 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 15:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%EV -3.97%E -1.94%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -4.91%E -2.43%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-27 16:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-24 17:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-24 17:05 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-24 17:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-24 17:05 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -4.74%E -2.63%K -5.92%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-27 16:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.25%EV -2.08%E -1.00%K -1.93%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.75%EV -5.27%E -2.94%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-27 16:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 46.37%EV -2.55%E -1.23%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.63%EV -5.27%E -2.94%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 16:34 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.23%EV -5.85%E -2.92%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 52.77%EV -5.27%E -2.94%K -6.66%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-27 16:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.03I 49.26%NM 46.72%EV -4.44%E -2.19%K -4.31%G +0.000% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 53.28%EV -5.79%E -3.26%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-27 16:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 15:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -6.32%E -3.57%K -8.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 16:31 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-27 16:35 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -1.14%E -0.544%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-27 16:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -3.50%E -1.70%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-27 12:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.92%EV -6.79%E -3.43%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.08%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -7.38%E -4.22%K -9.84%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.01%EV -8.20%E -4.21%K -8.63%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.99%EV -8.44%E -4.88%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.83I 54.64%NM 47.11%EV -13.85%E -7.57%K -16.69%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 52.89%EV -13.73%E -8.43%K -21.80%G +0.000% | 16.0% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (10)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 0.4% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.87% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 52.13% | 0.4% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 48.24% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.76% | 0.6% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.07I 48.31%NM 47.86% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.14% | 0.9% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61% | 1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39% | 1.0% | 2026-09-27 16:50 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48% | 1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52% | 1.1% | 2026-09-27 16:53 |
| Novig◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02% | 1.2% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.06I 48.54%NM 47.98% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 52.02% | 1.2% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96% | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04% | 2.2% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.05I 48.78%NM 47.70% | 1.87I 53.48%NM 52.30% | 2.3% | 2026-09-27 16:55 |