The School of Odds

Houston Texans v Cincinnati Bengals

2026-09-20 17:00 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Houston Texans (Local)

Prediction 55.91%1.79fair odd
EV -2.72%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -3.67%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.15%55.91%55.91%56.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.691.711.701.7459%58%59%57%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Cincinnati Bengals (Visit)

Prediction 44.09%2.27fair odd
EV -2.56%
Edge -1.16%
Kelly -2.12%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.21

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
43.33%44.09%44.09%44.85%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
2.142.172.152.2147%46%47%45%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -2.72%E -1.56%K -3.67%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.65%E -2.64%K -4.96%G +0.000%4.2%2026-07-06 11:15
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.95%E -2.91%K -7.07%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.21%E -2.42%K -4.53%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 17:34
Caesars1.69I 59.17%NM 56.67%EV -5.51%E -3.26%K -7.99%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.33%EV -2.56%E -1.16%K -2.12%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-15 02:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.