The School of Odds
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Detroit Lions v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2026-11-22 18:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Detroit Lions (Local)

Prediction 66.03%1.51fair odd
EV -4.91%
Edge -3.41%
Kelly -11.16%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.44

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.63%66.03%66.03%66.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.441.441.4469.44%69.44%69.44%69.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit)

Prediction 33.97%2.94fair odd
EV -3.19%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -1.73%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.85

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.57%33.97%33.97%34.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.802.802.8536.36%35.71%35.71%35.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Detroit Lions (Local): 66.03%; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit): 33.97%. For Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.94. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.85, with an expected value of -3.19%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -3.19%E -1.12%K -1.73%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-04 21:49
Caesars🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -4.91%E -3.41%K -11.16%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -6.59%E -2.40%K -3.77%G +0.000%5.8%2026-06-30 09:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.