Denver Broncos v Buffalo Bills

2026-12-25 21:30 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

14 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

46%

54%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Denver Broncos (Local)

Prediction 45.70%2.19fair odd

EV -3.11%

Edge -1.46%

Kelly -2.77%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.12

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

45.17%46.12%45.74%48.95%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.942.072.102.1252%48%48%47%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Buffalo Bills (Visit)

Prediction 54.30%1.84fair odd

EV +0.989%

Edge +0.532%

Kelly +1.15%

Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 1.86

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

51.05%53.88%54.26%54.83%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.721.761.751.8658%57%57%54%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (14 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Caesars	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -11.33%E -5.84%K -12.06%G +0.000%	1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV +0.989%E +0.532%K +1.15%G +0.011%	5.3%	2026-07-20 23:49
DraftKings	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.02%E -1.91%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.90%E -2.20%K -5.06%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-20 23:45
BetMGM	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.02%E -1.91%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.90%E -2.20%K -5.06%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-20 23:45
theScore Bet	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.02%E -1.91%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.90%E -2.20%K -5.06%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-07-20 23:45
Ladbrokes (AU)	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.30%E -3.08%K -6.00%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.90%E -2.20%K -5.06%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-20 23:45
Neds	2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.30%E -3.08%K -6.00%G +0.000%	1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.90%E -2.20%K -5.06%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-20 23:45
FanDuel	2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.11%E -1.46%K -2.77%G +0.000%	1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -4.44%E -2.52%K -5.84%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-07-20 23:45
Ladbrokes (UK)	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.02%E -1.91%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.98%E -2.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-20 23:45
Coral	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -4.02%E -1.91%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.98%E -2.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-20 23:44
Unibet (UK)	2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.93%E -2.37%K -4.57%G +0.000%	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -4.98%E -2.85%K -6.64%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-07-20 23:45
SportsBet	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.02%E -1.91%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.53%E -3.18%K -7.47%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-07-20 23:44
Paddy Power	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.02%E -1.91%K -3.65%G +0.000%	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.07%E -3.51%K -8.31%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-20 23:45
Betclic (FR)	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -6.30%E -3.08%K -6.00%G +0.000%	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.61%E -3.84%K -9.18%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-20 23:44
LeoVegas	2.00I 50.00%NM 46.24%EV -8.59%E -4.30%K -8.59%G +0.000%	1.72I 58.14%NM 53.76%EV -6.61%E -3.84%K -9.18%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-20 23:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets	2.02I 49.50%NM 45.70%	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.30%	8.3%	2026-07-20 23:45