Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Cowboys v Washington Commanders

2026-09-20 20:25 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Dallas Cowboys (Local)

Prediction 63.36%1.58fair odd

EV -3.69%

Edge -2.43%

Kelly -7.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.52

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

63.11%63.36%63.36%63.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.501.511.511.5266.67%66.23%66.23%65.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Washington Commanders (Visit)

Prediction 36.64%2.73fair odd

EV -3.27%

Edge -1.24%

Kelly -2.00%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.64

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

36.39%36.64%36.64%36.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.602.612.602.6438.46%38.27%38.46%37.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Dallas Cowboys (Local): 63.36%; Washington Commanders (Visit): 36.64%. For Washington Commanders (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.73. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.64, with an expected value of -3.27%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Caesars🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -3.69%E -2.43%K -7.10%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.74%E -1.82%K -2.96%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-05-15 01:44
DraftKings🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 63.61%EV -4.33%E -2.86%K -8.48%G +0.000%	2.64I 37.88%NM 36.39%EV -3.27%E -1.24%K -2.00%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-08-06 22:10
Betr (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -4.96%E -3.31%K -9.92%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.74%E -1.82%K -2.96%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-08 15:05

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Polymarket◎	1.06I 94.34%NM 50.00%	1.06I 94.34%NM 50.00%	88.7%	2026-08-14 04:59

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