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Chicago Bears v Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2026-11-09 01:20 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Bears (Local)

Prediction 69.62%1.44fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -1.81%
Kelly -6.33%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.97%69.75%69.64%72.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.321.361.361.4075.76%73.36%73.53%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit)

Prediction 30.38%3.29fair odd
EV +3.90%
Edge +1.14%
Kelly +1.61%
Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 3.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.85%30.25%30.36%32.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.163.203.4233.90%31.62%31.25%29.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Chicago Bears (Local): 69.62%; Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit): 30.38%. For Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.29. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.42, producing a positive expected value of +3.90%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.15%EV -8.10%E -6.14%K -25.32%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.85%EV +3.90%E +1.14%K +1.61%G +0.063%5.0%2026-11-03 05:34
FanDuel🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -6.71%E -5.01%K -19.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV +3.29%E +0.968%K +1.37%G +0.045%4.0%2026-11-03 05:35
theScore Bet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -6.71%E -5.01%K -19.73%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV +3.29%E +0.968%K +1.37%G +0.045%4.0%2026-11-03 05:29
Paddy Power🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -7.41%E -5.57%K -22.44%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -1.27%E -0.389%K -0.562%G +0.000%6.0%2026-11-03 05:29
Pinnacle🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 70.09%EV -4.62%E -3.37%K -12.49%G +0.000%3.21I 31.15%NM 29.91%EV -2.48%E -0.773%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.1%2026-11-03 05:25
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.78%E -0.870%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-03 05:39
Coral🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.78%E -0.870%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-03 05:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.78%E -0.870%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-03 05:40
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.78%E -0.870%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-03 05:39
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -2.78%E -0.870%K -1.27%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-03 05:15
NordicBet🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.01%E -4.45%K -17.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.78%E -0.870%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-03 05:39
Betsson🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -6.01%E -4.45%K -17.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -2.78%E -0.870%K -1.27%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-03 05:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.32%E -3.91%K -14.77%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -4.30%E -1.37%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-03 05:40
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.53%E -1.81%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%3.7%2026-11-03 05:39
DraftKings🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -3.23%E -2.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.2%2026-11-03 05:25
Fanatics🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.92%E -2.84%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -5.82%E -1.88%K -2.77%G +0.000%4.7%2026-11-03 04:45
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.92%E -2.84%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.34%E -2.41%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-03 05:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -3.92%E -2.84%K -10.33%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -7.34%E -2.41%K -3.58%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-03 05:35
TAB🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -2.53%E -1.81%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV -8.86%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%4.8%2026-11-03 05:35
Betway🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -3.23%E -2.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV -8.86%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%5.3%2026-11-03 05:29
LeoVegas🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 69.44%EV -8.10%E -6.14%K -25.32%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.56%EV -8.86%E -2.95%K -4.43%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-03 05:30
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 67.97%EV -3.23%E -2.32%K -8.28%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.03%EV -10.38%E -3.52%K -5.32%G +0.000%5.8%2026-11-03 05:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (10)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.58%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.42%1.3%2026-11-03 05:30
ProphetX◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70%1.7%2026-11-03 05:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70%1.7%2026-11-03 05:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 72.30%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.70%1.7%2026-11-03 05:40
Novig◎1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-11-03 05:35
Polymarket◎1.37I 72.99%NM 71.58%3.45I 28.99%NM 28.42%2.0%2026-11-03 05:20
Kalshi◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.56%3.57I 28.01%NM 27.44%2.1%2026-11-03 05:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.45%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.55%2.2%2026-11-03 05:40
Smarkets◎1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%2.6%2026-11-03 05:45
BetOpenly◎1.39I 71.94%NM 68.19%2.98I 33.56%NM 31.81%5.5%2026-11-03 04:40