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Chicago Bears v New Orleans Saints

2026-11-22 18:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Chicago Bears (Local)

Prediction 70.49%1.42fair odd
EV -4.13%
Edge -3.04%
Kelly -11.48%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.36

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.48%70.49%70.49%70.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.341.351.351.3674.63%74.07%74.07%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Orleans Saints (Visit)

Prediction 29.51%3.39fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -1.26%
Kelly -1.82%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%29.51%29.51%29.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.233.233.2531.25%31.01%31.01%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Chicago Bears (Local): 70.49%; New Orleans Saints (Visit): 29.51%. For New Orleans Saints (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.25, with an expected value of -4.10%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.13%E -3.04%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.10%E -1.26%K -1.82%G +0.000%4.3%2026-08-14 17:09
Caesars🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.54%E -4.14%K -16.30%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -5.57%E -1.74%K -2.53%G +0.000%5.9%2026-06-26 09:48
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

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