The School of Odds
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Buffalo Bills v Miami Dolphins

2026-11-22 18:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Buffalo Bills (Local)

Prediction 83.74%1.19fair odd
EV -3.70%
Edge -3.22%
Kelly -24.65%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.15

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.21%83.74%83.74%84.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.141.141.1589.29%88.11%88.11%86.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Miami Dolphins (Visit)

Prediction 16.26%6.15fair odd
EV -2.44%
Edge -0.407%
Kelly -0.489%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.73%16.26%16.26%16.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.705.855.856.0017.54%17.09%17.09%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Buffalo Bills (Local): 83.74%; Miami Dolphins (Visit): 16.26%. For Miami Dolphins (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.15. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 6.00, with an expected value of -2.44%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.15I 86.96%NM 83.21%EV -3.70%E -3.22%K -24.65%G +0.000%5.70I 17.54%NM 16.79%EV -7.32%E -1.28%K -1.56%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-01 14:45
Caesars🎯1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -6.21%E -5.55%K -51.75%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -2.44%E -0.407%K -0.489%G +0.000%6.0%2026-06-22 22:37
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.