Language:English
Buffalo Bills v Los Angeles Chargers
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Buffalo Bills (Local)
Prediction 74.08%1.35fair odd
EV +0.744%
Edge +0.547%
Kelly +2.07%
Growth +0.015%
assuming max odds 1.36
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.13%74.09%74.15%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.151.281.291.3686.96%77.93%77.52%73.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Los Angeles Chargers (Visit)
Prediction 25.92%3.86fair odd
EV +6.29%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +2.03%
Growth +0.127%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.08%25.91%25.85%28.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.713.704.1030.30%26.97%27.03%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Bills (Local): 74.08%; Los Angeles Chargers (Visit): 25.92%. For Los Angeles Chargers (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.86. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (59 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.23I 81.30%NM 76.92%EV -8.89%E -7.22%K -38.63%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.08%EV +6.29%E +1.53%K +2.03%G +0.127% | 5.7% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +3.69%E +0.924%K +1.23%G +0.045% | 3.7% | 2026-09-27 16:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.90%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.10%EV +3.69%E +0.924%K +1.23%G +0.045% | 3.7% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +3.69%E +0.924%K +1.23%G +0.045% | 5.0% | 2026-09-27 14:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +3.69%E +0.924%K +1.23%G +0.045% | 5.0% | 2026-09-24 08:20 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +3.69%E +0.924%K +1.23%G +0.045% | 5.0% | 2026-09-27 14:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV +1.10%E +0.282%K +0.380%G +0.004% | 3.2% | 2026-09-24 14:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV +1.10%E +0.282%K +0.380%G +0.004% | 3.2% | 2026-09-24 14:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV +1.10%E +0.282%K +0.380%G +0.004% | 3.2% | 2026-09-24 14:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV +1.10%E +0.282%K +0.380%G +0.004% | 3.2% | 2026-09-24 14:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.20%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.80%EV -0.195%E -0.051%K -0.068%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-27 16:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -1.49%E -0.392%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-27 16:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -1.49%E -0.392%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-09-27 15:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.18%E -4.05%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -1.49%E -0.392%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-24 14:45 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -5.18%E -4.05%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -1.49%E -0.392%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -1.49%E -0.392%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-24 14:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -1.49%E -0.392%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-24 14:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -1.49%E -0.392%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-24 14:40 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -1.49%E -0.392%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-24 14:40 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -1.49%E -0.392%K -0.532%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-27 16:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.21%EV -2.96%E -2.26%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.77I 26.53%NM 25.79%EV -2.27%E -0.602%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-09-27 16:55 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.79%E -0.743%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 15:35 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.79%E -0.743%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 16:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.79%E -0.743%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 02:08 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.79%E -0.743%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 15:38 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.79%E -0.743%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 15:13 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -2.79%E -0.743%K -1.01%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-09-27 15:13 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV -3.05%E -0.814%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 11:45 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV -3.05%E -0.814%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 11:45 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 16:09 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 13:50 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 16:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.18%E -4.05%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-27 16:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.18%E -4.05%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -5.18%E -4.05%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -4.08%E -1.10%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -3.70%E -2.85%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.26%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-20 23:14 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -5.38%E -1.47%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.83%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.17%EV -5.64%E -1.55%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.83%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.64I 27.47%NM 26.17%EV -5.64%E -1.55%K -2.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 73.02%EV -1.48%E -1.11%K -4.48%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.98%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-09-27 16:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.32%EV -2.96%E -2.26%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.68%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-09-27 15:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -3.70%E -2.85%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 08:20 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 03:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 03:44 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 03:44 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -4.44%E -3.44%K -15.31%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-27 03:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.18%E -4.05%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-27 16:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.18%E -4.05%K -18.51%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -6.68%E -1.85%K -2.57%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-27 11:24 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 73.80%EV -6.66%E -5.29%K -25.63%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.20%EV -7.97%E -2.25%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -2.22%E -1.68%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Dabble (AU)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.61%EV -2.22%E -1.68%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.39%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-09-27 16:35 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -7.40%E -5.92%K -29.62%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -9.27%E -2.65%K -3.71%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-27 16:59 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -2.96%E -2.26%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -3.70%E -2.85%K -12.34%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -11.86%E -3.49%K -4.94%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV +0.744%E +0.547%K +2.07%G +0.015% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -13.16%E -3.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 74.44%EV -14.81%E -12.88%K -98.75%G +0.000% | 3.35I 29.85%NM 25.56%EV -13.16%E -3.93%K -5.60%G +0.000% | 16.8% | 2026-09-22 12:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.21%EV -5.92%E -4.66%K -21.94%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 27.79%EV -14.45%E -4.38%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-09-27 16:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 75.05% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.95% | 0.2% | 2026-09-27 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19% | 0.5% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.81% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.19% | 0.5% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.33I 75.19%NM 74.67% | 3.92I 25.51%NM 25.33% | 0.7% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-27 08:04 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 0.8% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.95% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05% | 1.1% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.47% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 25.53% | 1.7% | 2026-09-27 17:00 |
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.15% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.85% | 4.5% | 2026-09-27 16:45 |