The School of Odds
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Atlanta Falcons v Kansas City Chiefs

2026-11-15 18:00 UTC — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Atlanta Falcons (Local)

Prediction 34.81%2.87fair odd
EV +0.936%
Edge +0.323%
Kelly +0.492%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.03%34.81%34.81%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.752.752.9038.46%36.36%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)

Prediction 65.19%1.53fair odd
EV -2.21%
Edge -1.47%
Kelly -4.42%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%65.19%65.19%66.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.431.461.461.5069.93%68.26%68.26%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Atlanta Falcons (Local): 34.81%; Kansas City Chiefs (Visit): 65.19%. For Atlanta Falcons (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.90, producing a positive expected value of +0.936%.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.03%EV +0.936%E +0.323%K +0.492%G +0.005%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.97%EV -6.77%E -4.74%K -15.75%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-01 16:40
Caesars🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -9.51%E -3.66%K -5.94%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.21%E -1.47%K -4.42%G +0.000%5.1%2026-06-26 09:57
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.