Atlanta Falcons v Kansas City Chiefs

2026-11-15 18:00 — NFL

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis)

Option 1: Atlanta Falcons (Local)

Odds

2.6038.46%Min

2.7037.04%Mean

2.7037.04%Median

2.8035.71%Max

Consensus probabilities

34.27%2.918Min

36.59%2.733Max

35.43%2.823Mean

35.43%2.823Median

35.43%2.823IQM

35.33%2.830Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 2.80 under the IQM model: 35.43%

EV -0.799%Edge -0.285%Kelly -0.444%Growth +0.000%

Option 2: Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)

Odds

1.4668.49%Min

1.4867.57%Mean

1.4867.57%Median

1.5066.67%Max

Consensus probabilities

63.41%1.577Min

65.73%1.521Max

64.57%1.549Mean

64.57%1.549Median

64.57%1.549IQM

64.67%1.546Margin-weighted

Metrics for max odd 1.50 under the IQM model: 64.57%

EV -3.14%Edge -2.10%Kelly -6.29%Growth +0.000%

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Atlanta Falcons (Local) ▼	Kansas City Chiefs (Visit)	Margin	Updated
DraftKings	2.80I 35.71% NM 34.27%EV -0.799% E -0.285% K -0.444% G +0.000%	1.46I 68.49% NM 65.73%EV -5.73% E -3.92% K -12.45% G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-06-26 09:49
Caesars	2.60I 38.46% NM 36.59%EV -7.89% E -3.03% K -4.93% G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67% NM 63.41%EV -3.14% E -2.10% K -6.29% G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-06-26 09:57

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth