The School of Odds

Arizona Cardinals v Detroit Lions

2026-10-11 20:25 UTC — NFL

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Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (2 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Arizona Cardinals (Local)

Prediction 24.07%4.15fair odd
EV -3.72%
Edge -0.930%
Kelly -1.24%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.81%24.07%24.07%24.33%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.953.983.984.0025%25%25%25%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Detroit Lions (Visit)

Prediction 75.93%1.32fair odd
EV -3.57%
Edge -2.81%
Kelly -13.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.67%75.93%75.93%76.19%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.251.261.261.2780%79%79%79%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Caesars4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.72%E -0.930%K -1.24%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.09%E -4.07%K -20.35%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-15 22:38
DraftKings3.95I 25.32%NM 24.33%EV -4.93%E -1.25%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.27I 78.74%NM 75.67%EV -3.57%E -2.81%K -13.22%G +0.000%4.1%2026-07-23 20:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.