Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Illinois Leathernecks v Illinois State Redbirds

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 00:00 UTC

Final: Western Illinois Leathernecks 10–41 Illinois State Redbirds

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

92%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Western Illinois Leathernecks (Local)

Prediction 8.14%12.28fair odd

EV +1.81%

Edge +0.145%

Kelly +0.158%

Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 12.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

7.75%8.14%7.98%8.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

10.9011.8512.0012.509.17%8.44%8.33%8.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illinois State Redbirds (Visit)

Prediction 91.86%1.09fair odd

EV -3.55%

Edge -3.38%

Kelly -71.04%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

91.29%91.86%92.02%92.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.041.041.041.0596.15%95.92%96.15%95.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Western Illinois Leathernecks (Local): 8.14%; Illinois State Redbirds (Visit): 91.86%. For Western Illinois Leathernecks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 12.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.81%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	12.50I 8.00%NM 7.75%EV +1.81%E +0.145%K +0.158%G +0.003%	1.05I 95.24%NM 92.25%EV -3.55%E -3.38%K -71.04%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-09-05 23:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.26%E -0.188%K -0.206%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.47%E -4.30%K -111.77%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-05 23:14
theScore Bet🎯	12.00I 8.33%NM 7.98%EV -2.26%E -0.188%K -0.206%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 92.02%EV -4.47%E -4.30%K -111.77%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-09-05 23:20
DraftKings🎯	10.90I 9.17%NM 8.71%EV -11.22%E -1.03%K -1.13%G +0.000%	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.29%EV -4.47%E -4.30%K -111.77%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-05 23:15

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.