Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Villanova Wildcats v Morgan State Bears

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 17:01 UTC

Final: Villanova Wildcats 35–38 Morgan State Bears

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

85%

15%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Villanova Wildcats (Local)

Prediction 85.09%1.18fair odd

EV -3.85%

Edge -3.41%

Kelly -29.60%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

83.33%85.05%85.19%86.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.081.111.101.1392.59%90.33%90.91%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Morgan State Bears (Visit)

Prediction 14.91%6.71fair odd

EV +8.10%

Edge +1.12%

Kelly +1.30%

Growth +0.105%

assuming max odds 7.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

13.17%14.95%14.81%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.406.356.227.2518.52%15.74%16.06%13.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Villanova Wildcats (Local): 85.09%; Morgan State Bears (Visit): 14.91%. For Morgan State Bears (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.71. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +8.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
betPARX🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -64.01%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV +8.10%E +1.12%K +1.30%G +0.105%	4.7%	2026-10-03 14:25
Bally Bet🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.83%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -64.01%G +0.000%	7.25I 13.79%NM 13.17%EV +8.10%E +1.12%K +1.30%G +0.105%	4.7%	2026-10-03 14:25
DraftKings🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.08%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -64.01%G +0.000%	6.80I 14.71%NM 13.92%EV +1.39%E +0.204%K +0.240%G +0.003%	5.6%	2026-10-03 16:59
BetMGM🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -3.85%E -3.41%K -29.60%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV -3.08%E -0.474%K -0.561%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-03 16:49
BetRivers🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 85.33%EV -6.40%E -5.82%K -64.01%G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63%NM 14.67%EV -4.57%E -0.715%K -0.847%G +0.000%	6.5%	2026-10-03 17:00
Fliff🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.26%EV -3.85%E -3.41%K -29.60%G +0.000%	6.05I 16.53%NM 15.74%EV -9.79%E -1.62%K -1.94%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-03 17:00
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -4.70%E -4.20%K -39.16%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -10.54%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-10-03 14:25
theScore Bet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.29%G +0.000%	6.00I 16.67%NM 15.25%EV -10.54%E -1.76%K -2.11%G +0.000%	9.3%	2026-10-03 17:00
FanDuel🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -3.85%E -3.41%K -29.60%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV -12.03%E -2.04%K -2.45%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-03 14:25
ReBet🎯	1.08I 92.59%NM 83.33%EV -8.10%E -7.50%K -101.29%G +0.000%	5.40I 18.52%NM 16.67%EV -19.48%E -3.61%K -4.43%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-10-03 16:31

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.