Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valparaiso Beacons v Drake Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 18:01 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

11 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valparaiso Beacons (Local)

Prediction 23.28%4.29fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.246%
Kelly -0.322%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.30%23.25%23.22%24.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.944.144.204.2525.38%24.18%23.81%23.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Drake Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 76.72%1.30fair odd
EV -4.10%
Edge -3.28%
Kelly -16.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.92%76.75%76.78%77.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.231.2583.33%81.24%81.30%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valparaiso Beacons (Local): 23.28%; Drake Bulldogs (Visit): 76.72%. For Valparaiso Beacons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.29. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.25, with an expected value of -1.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (11 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.05%E -0.246%K -0.322%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.41%E -5.25%K -29.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 15:05
betPARX🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.05%E -0.246%K -0.322%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.41%E -5.25%K -29.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 15:05
Bally Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.05%E -0.246%K -0.322%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.41%E -5.25%K -29.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 15:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV -1.05%E -0.246%K -0.322%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.41%E -5.25%K -29.11%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-10 15:05
ReBet🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -2.21%E -0.527%K -0.691%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.87%E -3.93%K -20.30%G +0.000%4.5%2026-10-10 17:25
FanDuel🎯4.20I 23.81%NM 22.65%EV -2.21%E -0.527%K -0.691%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.35%EV -5.64%E -4.58%K -24.51%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-10 16:05
BetMGM🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.54%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.10%E -3.28%K -16.41%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-10 16:10
Fliff🎯4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.54%E -1.11%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.87%E -3.93%K -20.30%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-10 16:35
theScore Bet🎯4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.87%E -1.72%K -2.29%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.94%E -6.62%K -39.70%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-10 17:10
Caesars🎯3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -8.03%E -2.03%K -2.72%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -4.10%E -3.28%K -16.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-10 16:38
DraftKings🎯3.94I 25.38%NM 24.08%EV -8.27%E -2.10%K -2.81%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 75.92%EV -4.10%E -3.28%K -16.41%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-10 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.