The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Valparaiso Beacons v Butler Bulldogs

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:01 UTC

Final: Valparaiso Beacons 28–33 Butler Bulldogs

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Valparaiso Beacons (Local)

Prediction 30.50%3.28fair odd
EV +2.17%
Edge +0.648%
Kelly +0.924%
Growth +0.020%

assuming max odds 3.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.42%30.51%31.11%32.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.913.163.153.3534.36%31.62%31.75%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Butler Bulldogs (Visit)

Prediction 69.50%1.44fair odd
EV -2.00%
Edge -1.42%
Kelly -4.89%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.41

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.36%69.49%68.89%71.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.361.4175.19%73.65%73.53%70.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Valparaiso Beacons (Local): 30.50%; Butler Bulldogs (Visit): 69.50%. For Valparaiso Beacons (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.28. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.35, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.17%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetRivers🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +2.17%E +0.648%K +0.924%G +0.020%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -7.56%E -5.69%K -22.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 14:40
betPARX🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +2.17%E +0.648%K +0.924%G +0.020%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -7.56%E -5.69%K -22.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 14:40
Bally Bet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 28.42%EV +2.17%E +0.648%K +0.924%G +0.020%1.33I 75.19%NM 71.58%EV -7.56%E -5.69%K -22.92%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 14:40
FanDuel🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -0.878%E -0.270%K -0.390%G +0.000%1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -6.87%E -5.13%K -20.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-26 14:50
Fliff🎯3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -3.93%E -1.25%K -1.83%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -5.48%E -4.03%K -15.22%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 17:05
BetMGM🎯3.10I 32.26%NM 31.11%EV -5.45%E -1.76%K -2.60%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 68.89%EV -2.70%E -1.93%K -6.75%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-26 14:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.48%E -4.03%K -15.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-26 15:15
theScore Bet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -8.50%E -2.83%K -4.25%G +0.000%1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -5.48%E -4.03%K -15.22%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-26 15:14
DraftKings🎯2.91I 34.36%NM 32.64%EV -11.25%E -3.87%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 67.36%EV -2.00%E -1.42%K -4.89%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 14:50
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.