Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tennessee State Tigers v Morgan State Bears

Kickoff: 2026-10-17 22:31 UTC

Final: Tennessee State Tigers 25–16 Morgan State Bears

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

35%

65%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tennessee State Tigers (Local)

Prediction 35.23%2.84fair odd

EV +5.70%

Edge +1.90%

Kelly +2.85%

Growth +0.162%

assuming max odds 3.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

31.19%35.33%34.99%39.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.382.582.553.0042.02%38.76%39.22%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Morgan State Bears (Visit)

Prediction 64.77%1.54fair odd

EV +2.98%

Edge +1.87%

Kelly +5.05%

Growth +0.151%

assuming max odds 1.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.15%64.67%65.01%68.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.361.511.501.5973.53%66.27%66.67%62.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tennessee State Tigers (Local): 35.23%; Morgan State Bears (Visit): 64.77%. For Tennessee State Tigers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.84. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.70%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
theScore Bet🎯	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +5.70%E +1.90%K +2.85%G +0.162%	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -11.92%E -8.76%K -33.10%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-10-17 22:30
DraftKings🎯	2.78I 35.97%NM 34.12%EV -2.05%E -0.739%K -1.15%G +0.000%	1.44I 69.44%NM 65.88%EV -6.73%E -4.68%K -15.31%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-17 21:55
BetMGM🎯	2.75I 36.36%NM 34.99%EV -3.11%E -1.13%K -1.78%G +0.000%	1.48I 67.57%NM 65.01%EV -4.14%E -2.80%K -8.63%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-10-17 21:55
FanDuel🎯	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -8.40%E -3.23%K -5.25%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.70%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-10-17 21:45
Fliff🎯	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -10.16%E -3.98%K -6.55%G +0.000%	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -2.85%E -1.90%K -5.70%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-17 22:30
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -15.44%E -6.43%K -11.03%G +0.000%	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV +2.98%E +1.87%K +5.05%G +0.151%	4.6%	2026-10-17 21:50
BetRivers🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -16.15%E -6.78%K -11.70%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV +1.69%E +1.07%K +2.96%G +0.050%	5.7%	2026-10-17 21:50
Bally Bet🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -16.15%E -6.78%K -11.70%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV +1.69%E +1.07%K +2.96%G +0.050%	5.7%	2026-10-17 21:50
betPARX🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -16.15%E -6.78%K -11.70%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV +1.69%E +1.07%K +2.96%G +0.050%	5.7%	2026-10-17 21:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.