Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tarleton State Texans v Merrimack Warriors

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 23:01 UTC

Final: Tarleton State Texans 45–20 Merrimack Warriors

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

97%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tarleton State Texans (Local)

Prediction 96.56%1.04fair odd

EV -2.48%

Edge -2.45%

Kelly -247.71%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

96.26%96.56%96.30%97.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.001.011.011.01100.00%99.34%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Merrimack Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 3.44%29.05fair odd

EV +17.05%

Edge +0.501%

Kelly +0.517%

Growth +0.088%

assuming max odds 34.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

2.88%3.44%3.70%3.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

26.0028.6726.0034.003.85%3.49%3.85%2.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Tarleton State Texans (Local): 96.56%; Merrimack Warriors (Visit): 3.44%. For Merrimack Warriors (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 29.05. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 34.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.05%.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetMGM🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 97.12%EV -2.48%E -2.45%K -247.71%G +0.000%	34.00I 2.94%NM 2.88%EV +17.05%E +0.501%K +0.517%G +0.088%	2.0%	2026-09-19 19:14
FanDuel🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 96.26%EV -2.48%E -2.45%K -247.71%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.74%EV -10.49%E -0.404%K -0.420%G +0.000%	2.9%	2026-09-19 22:24
theScore Bet🎯	1.00I 100.00%NM 96.30%EV -3.44%E -3.44%K +0.000%G +0.000%	26.00I 3.85%NM 3.70%EV -10.49%E -0.404%K -0.420%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-09-19 14:01

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.