Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tarleton State Texans v Merrimack Warriors

2026-09-19 23:01 UTC — NCAAF FCS

Head to Head

1 sportsbook (1 in analysis )

95%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Tarleton State Texans (Local)

Prediction 94.69%1.06fair odd

EV -4.37%

Edge -4.32%

Kelly -436.61%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

94.69%94.69%94.69%94.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.011.011.011.0199.01%99.01%99.01%99.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Merrimack Warriors (Visit)

Prediction 5.31%18.82fair odd

EV -4.37%

Edge -0.243%

Kelly -0.257%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 18.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

5.31%5.31%5.31%5.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

18.0018.0018.0018.005.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Tarleton State Texans (Local): 94.69%; Merrimack Warriors (Visit): 5.31%. For Merrimack Warriors (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 18.82. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 18.00, with an expected value of -4.37%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (1 sportsbook)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -4.37%E -4.32%K -436.61%G +0.000%	18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV -4.37%E -0.243%K -0.257%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-09-16 05:20

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.