Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies v Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Kickoff: 2026-09-19 18:01 UTC

Final: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies 28–26 Southern Utah Thunderbirds

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

22%

78%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

St. Thomas (MN) Tommies (Local)

Prediction 22.22%4.50fair odd

EV -0.012%

Edge -0.003%

Kelly -0.003%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

21.01%22.22%21.57%24.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.944.314.404.5025.38%23.20%22.73%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds (Visit)

Prediction 77.78%1.29fair odd

EV -2.77%

Edge -2.22%

Kelly -11.10%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

75.92%77.78%78.43%78.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.171.211.211.2585.47%82.64%82.64%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: St. Thomas (MN) Tommies (Local): 22.22%; Southern Utah Thunderbirds (Visit): 77.78%. For St. Thomas (MN) Tommies (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.501. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 4.500, with an expected value of -0.012%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Hard Rock Bet🎯	4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV -0.012%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -5.89%E -4.86%K -28.03%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-19 16:49
FanDuel🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -2.23%E -0.508%K -0.657%G +0.000%	1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -5.89%E -4.86%K -28.03%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-19 16:54
theScore Bet🎯	4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -2.23%E -0.508%K -0.657%G +0.000%	1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -9.00%E -7.69%K -52.92%G +0.000%	8.2%	2026-09-19 16:55
DraftKings🎯	3.94I 25.38%NM 24.08%EV -12.45%E -3.16%K -4.24%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 75.92%EV -2.77%E -2.22%K -11.10%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-19 16:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.