Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Utah Thunderbirds v Idaho State Bengals

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 00:01 UTC

Final: Southern Utah Thunderbirds 24–28 Idaho State Bengals

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

27%

73%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Southern Utah Thunderbirds (Local)

Prediction 27.38%3.65fair odd

EV -2.54%

Edge -0.714%

Kelly -0.993%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.60%27.34%27.54%27.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.403.463.503.5629.41%28.88%28.57%28.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Idaho State Bengals (Visit)

Prediction 72.62%1.38fair odd

EV -3.41%

Edge -2.56%

Kelly -10.33%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

72.03%72.66%72.46%73.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.311.321.3378.74%76.40%75.76%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Southern Utah Thunderbirds (Local): 27.38%; Idaho State Bengals (Visit): 72.62%. For Southern Utah Thunderbirds (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.56, with an expected value of -2.54%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
DraftKings🎯	3.56I 28.09%NM 26.60%EV -2.54%E -0.714%K -0.993%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.40%EV -6.31%E -4.90%K -21.77%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-26 20:15
BetMGM🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.54%EV -4.19%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 72.46%EV -3.41%E -2.56%K -10.33%G +0.000%	3.8%	2026-09-26 23:49
Hard Rock Bet🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -4.19%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%	1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.86%E -3.71%K -15.68%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-26 20:15
Fliff🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.19%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.59%E -4.30%K -18.63%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-09-26 23:50
theScore Bet🎯	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV -4.19%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -7.77%E -6.12%K -28.77%G +0.000%	7.3%	2026-09-26 20:14
FanDuel🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.14%E -3.13%K -12.92%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-26 22:00
BetRivers🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.14%E -3.13%K -12.92%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-26 22:24
Bally Bet🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.14%E -3.13%K -12.92%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-26 22:25
betPARX🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.92%E -2.04%K -2.88%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.14%E -3.13%K -12.92%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-26 22:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.