Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Toreros v UC Davis Aggies

Kickoff: 2026-09-06 02:01 UTC

Final: San Diego Toreros 17–49 UC Davis Aggies

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Diego Toreros (Local)

Prediction 15.78%6.34fair odd
EV -1.38%
Edge -0.221%
Kelly -0.263%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.43%15.81%15.73%16.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.756.006.006.2517.39%16.67%16.67%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

UC Davis Aggies (Visit)

Prediction 84.22%1.19fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -3.50%
Kelly -28.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.14

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
83.70%84.19%84.27%84.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.131.131.1489.29%88.50%88.50%87.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Diego Toreros (Local): 15.78%; UC Davis Aggies (Visit): 84.22%. For San Diego Toreros (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.34. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 6.25, with an expected value of -1.38%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV -1.38%E -0.221%K -0.263%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.57%EV -3.99%E -3.50%K -28.49%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-05 23:05
DraftKings🎯6.09I 16.42%NM 15.53%EV -3.90%E -0.641%K -0.767%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.47%EV -5.67%E -5.07%K -47.27%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-05 23:05
betPARX🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.32%E -0.887%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.99%E -3.50%K -28.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Bally Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.97%EV -5.32%E -0.887%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 84.03%EV -3.99%E -3.50%K -28.49%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.32%E -0.887%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.83%E -4.28%K -37.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-05 23:04
Fliff🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.85%EV -5.32%E -0.887%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 84.15%EV -4.83%E -4.28%K -37.16%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-05 23:05
theScore Bet🎯6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -5.32%E -0.887%K -1.06%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -5.67%E -5.07%K -47.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-05 23:05
FanDuel🎯5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV -6.90%E -1.17%K -1.41%G +0.000%1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -4.83%E -4.28%K -37.16%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-05 23:05
Caesars🎯5.75I 17.39%NM 16.30%EV -9.27%E -1.61%K -1.95%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.70%EV -5.67%E -5.07%K -47.27%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-05 23:02
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.