Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Samford Bulldogs v VMI Keydets

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 19:31 UTC

Final: Samford Bulldogs 45–7 VMI Keydets

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

85%

15%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Samford Bulldogs (Local)

Prediction 85.21%1.17fair odd

EV -3.71%

Edge -3.29%

Kelly -28.56%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.13

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

83.93%85.17%85.19%86.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.111.121.1393.46%89.82%89.29%88.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

VMI Keydets (Visit)

Prediction 14.79%6.76fair odd

EV +3.53%

Edge +0.505%

Kelly +0.589%

Growth +0.021%

assuming max odds 7.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

13.69%14.83%14.81%16.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.906.546.507.0016.95%15.30%15.38%14.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Samford Bulldogs (Local): 85.21%; VMI Keydets (Visit): 14.79%. For VMI Keydets (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.76. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 7.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.53%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetRivers🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -5.42%E -4.88%K -49.25%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +3.53%E +0.505%K +0.589%G +0.021%	4.4%	2026-09-26 13:00
Bally Bet🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -5.42%E -4.88%K -49.25%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +3.53%E +0.505%K +0.589%G +0.021%	4.4%	2026-09-26 12:59
betPARX🎯	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -5.42%E -4.88%K -49.25%G +0.000%	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV +3.53%E +0.505%K +0.589%G +0.021%	4.4%	2026-09-26 12:59
BetMGM🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 85.19%EV -3.71%E -3.29%K -28.56%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.81%EV -3.86%E -0.594%K -0.702%G +0.000%	3.9%	2026-09-26 15:54
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 85.30%EV -4.57%E -4.08%K -38.05%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.70%EV -3.86%E -0.594%K -0.702%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-26 17:34
theScore Bet🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV -8.83%E -8.25%K -126.08%G +0.000%	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -3.86%E -0.594%K -0.702%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-26 13:09
Fliff🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.91%EV -4.57%E -4.08%K -38.05%G +0.000%	6.30I 15.87%NM 15.09%EV -6.82%E -1.08%K -1.29%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-26 17:05
DraftKings🎯	1.12I 89.29%NM 84.57%EV -4.57%E -4.08%K -38.05%G +0.000%	6.14I 16.29%NM 15.43%EV -9.19%E -1.50%K -1.79%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-09-26 14:30
FanDuel🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.93%EV -3.71%E -3.29%K -28.56%G +0.000%	5.90I 16.95%NM 16.07%EV -12.74%E -2.16%K -2.60%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-26 18:29

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.