Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northern Iowa Panthers v Illinois State Redbirds

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 21:01 UTC

Final: Northern Iowa Panthers 28–21 Illinois State Redbirds

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

12%

88%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northern Iowa Panthers (Local)

Prediction 12.50%8.00fair odd

EV +1.23%

Edge +0.152%

Kelly +0.174%

Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 8.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

11.76%12.68%12.09%14.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

6.507.618.008.1015.38%13.14%12.50%12.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Illinois State Redbirds (Visit)

Prediction 87.50%1.14fair odd

EV -2.87%

Edge -2.59%

Kelly -26.12%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.11

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

85.87%87.32%87.91%88.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.071.091.091.1193.46%91.74%91.74%90.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northern Iowa Panthers (Local): 12.50%; Illinois State Redbirds (Visit): 87.50%. For Northern Iowa Panthers (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.23%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
FanDuel🎯	8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV +1.23%E +0.152%K +0.174%G +0.002%	1.08I 92.59%NM 88.24%EV -5.50%E -5.09%K -68.72%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-26 19:35
BetMGM🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 12.09%EV -0.017%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 87.91%EV -3.75%E -3.41%K -37.48%G +0.000%	3.4%	2026-09-26 19:45
BetRivers🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -0.017%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.62%E -4.24%K -51.36%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-26 19:35
betPARX🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -0.017%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.62%E -4.24%K -51.36%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-26 19:35
Bally Bet🎯	8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -0.017%E -0.002%K -0.002%G +0.000%	1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.62%E -4.24%K -51.36%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-09-26 19:35
Fliff🎯	7.80I 12.82%NM 12.16%EV -2.52%E -0.323%K -0.370%G +0.000%	1.08I 92.59%NM 87.84%EV -5.50%E -5.09%K -68.72%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-09-26 20:00
DraftKings🎯	7.10I 14.08%NM 13.41%EV -11.26%E -1.59%K -1.85%G +0.000%	1.10I 90.91%NM 86.59%EV -3.75%E -3.41%K -37.48%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-26 19:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 13.69%EV -12.51%E -1.79%K -2.09%G +0.000%	1.11I 90.09%NM 86.31%EV -2.87%E -2.59%K -26.12%G +0.000%	4.4%	2026-09-26 19:45
theScore Bet🎯	6.50I 15.38%NM 14.13%EV -18.76%E -2.89%K -3.41%G +0.000%	1.07I 93.46%NM 85.87%EV -6.37%E -5.96%K -91.04%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-09-26 19:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.