Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks v Montana Grizzlies

Kickoff: 2026-10-10 21:00 UTC

Final: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks 49–44 Montana Grizzlies

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

29%

71%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Local)

Prediction 29.37%3.40fair odd

EV +5.73%

Edge +1.59%

Kelly +2.20%

Growth +0.126%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

26.23%29.10%29.20%31.15%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.053.353.353.6032.79%29.82%29.85%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Montana Grizzlies (Visit)

Prediction 70.63%1.42fair odd

EV -2.53%

Edge -1.83%

Kelly -6.66%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.38

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

68.85%70.90%70.80%73.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.281.321.331.3878.13%75.69%75.47%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Local): 29.37%; Montana Grizzlies (Visit): 70.63%. For Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.40. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
BetRivers🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +5.73%E +1.59%K +2.20%G +0.126%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -9.59%E -7.49%K -34.26%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-10 18:40
betPARX🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +5.73%E +1.59%K +2.20%G +0.126%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -9.59%E -7.49%K -34.26%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-10 18:40
Bally Bet🎯	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +5.73%E +1.59%K +2.20%G +0.126%	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -9.59%E -7.49%K -34.26%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-10-10 18:40
BetMGM🎯	3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -0.144%E -0.042%K -0.060%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -6.06%E -4.56%K -18.37%G +0.000%	4.6%	2026-10-10 19:00
Fliff🎯	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -3.08%E -0.934%K -1.34%G +0.000%	1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.06%E -4.56%K -18.37%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-10 20:35
theScore Bet🎯	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -6.02%E -1.88%K -2.74%G +0.000%	1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -6.77%E -5.13%K -21.15%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-10-10 20:40
DraftKings🎯	3.08I 32.47%NM 30.79%EV -9.54%E -3.10%K -4.59%G +0.000%	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.21%EV -3.24%E -2.36%K -8.75%G +0.000%	5.5%	2026-10-10 20:40
Caesars🎯	3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.42%E -3.42%K -5.08%G +0.000%	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.53%E -1.83%K -6.66%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-10-10 17:23

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.