Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Haven Chargers v Stonehill Skyhawks

Kickoff: 2026-09-05 16:01 UTC

Final: New Haven Chargers 3–21 Stonehill Skyhawks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

4 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New Haven Chargers (Local)

Prediction 71.43%1.40fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -3.76%
Kelly -15.15%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
71.27%71.43%71.43%73.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.311.311.3377.52%76.48%76.63%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Stonehill Skyhawks (Visit)

Prediction 28.57%3.50fair odd
EV +2.86%
Edge +0.794%
Kelly +1.10%
Growth +0.031%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.38%28.57%28.57%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.453.453.6030.30%28.99%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New Haven Chargers (Local): 71.43%; Stonehill Skyhawks (Visit): 28.57%. For Stonehill Skyhawks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.50. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.86%.

Sportsbook Odds (4 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
ReBet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.86%E -6.09%K -27.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +2.86%E +0.794%K +1.10%G +0.031%5.3%2026-09-03 16:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -7.86%E -6.09%K -27.09%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV +2.86%E +0.794%K +1.10%G +0.031%5.3%2026-09-02 14:59
Fliff🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -5.00%E -3.76%K -15.15%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -5.71%E -1.73%K -2.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-03 23:04
FanDuel🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.71%E -4.33%K -17.86%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -5.71%E -1.73%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-02 15:00
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.