Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Murray State Racers v Valparaiso Beacons

Kickoff: 2026-09-12 23:01 UTC

Final: Murray State Racers 27–18 Valparaiso Beacons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

84%

16%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Murray State Racers (Local)

Prediction 83.59%1.20fair odd

EV -2.20%

Edge -1.88%

Kelly -12.92%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.17

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

81.63%83.50%83.76%84.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.101.141.131.1790.91%88.03%88.11%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Valparaiso Beacons (Visit)

Prediction 16.41%6.09fair odd

EV +5.01%

Edge +0.782%

Kelly +0.927%

Growth +0.046%

assuming max odds 6.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

15.01%16.50%16.24%18.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

5.205.905.786.4019.23%16.94%17.32%15.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Murray State Racers (Local): 83.59%; Valparaiso Beacons (Visit): 16.41%. For Valparaiso Beacons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.09. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.40, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.01%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetRivers🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -5.54%E -4.90%K -42.62%G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV +5.01%E +0.782%K +0.927%G +0.046%	4.1%	2026-09-12 22:45
Bally Bet🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -5.54%E -4.90%K -42.62%G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV +5.01%E +0.782%K +0.927%G +0.046%	4.1%	2026-09-12 22:50
betPARX🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 84.99%EV -5.54%E -4.90%K -42.62%G +0.000%	6.40I 15.63%NM 15.01%EV +5.01%E +0.782%K +0.927%G +0.046%	4.1%	2026-09-12 22:50
BetMGM🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 84.57%EV -4.70%E -4.13%K -33.60%G +0.000%	6.25I 16.00%NM 15.43%EV +2.54%E +0.407%K +0.485%G +0.012%	3.7%	2026-09-12 22:59
Fliff🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.57%EV -4.70%E -4.13%K -33.60%G +0.000%	5.80I 17.24%NM 16.43%EV -4.84%E -0.834%K -1.01%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-09-12 22:59
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.14I 87.72%NM 83.45%EV -4.70%E -4.13%K -33.60%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.55%EV -5.66%E -0.984%K -1.19%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-12 22:55
Caesars🎯	1.13I 88.50%NM 83.58%EV -5.54%E -4.90%K -42.62%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.42%EV -5.66%E -0.984%K -1.19%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-12 22:57
theScore Bet🎯	1.10I 90.91%NM 83.94%EV -8.05%E -7.32%K -80.48%G +0.000%	5.75I 17.39%NM 16.06%EV -5.66%E -0.984%K -1.19%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-09-12 22:50
DraftKings🎯	1.15I 86.96%NM 82.28%EV -3.87%E -3.36%K -25.79%G +0.000%	5.34I 18.73%NM 17.72%EV -12.39%E -2.32%K -2.85%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-09-12 22:55
FanDuel🎯	1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -2.20%E -1.88%K -12.92%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -14.68%E -2.82%K -3.50%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-09-12 23:00

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.