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Murray State Racers v Valparaiso Beacons

2026-09-12 23:01 UTC — NCAAF FCS

Head to Head

3 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Murray State Racers (Local)

Prediction 75.88%1.32fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -13.47%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.70%75.88%75.88%75.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.261.261.2780.65%79.58%79.37%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Valparaiso Beacons (Visit)

Prediction 24.12%4.15fair odd
EV -5.91%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -2.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.12%24.12%24.12%25.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.753.803.753.9026.67%26.32%26.67%25.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Murray State Racers (Local): 75.88%; Valparaiso Beacons (Visit): 24.12%. For Murray State Racers (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.32. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.27, with an expected value of -3.64%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (3 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -3.64%E -2.86%K -13.47%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -9.53%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-09 03:04
ReBet🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -4.40%E -3.49%K -16.91%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -9.53%E -2.54%K -3.47%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-09 01:09
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.91%E -4.77%K -24.64%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -5.91%E -1.52%K -2.04%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-09 00:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.