Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Morehead State Eagles v Valparaiso Beacons

Kickoff: 2026-10-03 17:01 UTC

Final: Morehead State Eagles 3–37 Valparaiso Beacons

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

10 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

40%

60%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Morehead State Eagles (Local)

Prediction 40.44%2.47fair odd

EV -2.14%

Edge -0.882%

Kelly -1.50%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

39.35%40.40%40.35%42.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.252.322.302.4244.44%43.08%43.48%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Valparaiso Beacons (Visit)

Prediction 59.56%1.68fair odd

EV +0.061%

Edge +0.036%

Kelly +0.089%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.68

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

57.25%59.60%59.65%60.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.561.611.621.6864.10%62.03%61.92%59.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Morehead State Eagles (Local): 40.44%; Valparaiso Beacons (Visit): 59.56%. For Valparaiso Beacons (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.679. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.680, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.061%.

Sportsbook Odds (10 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
ReBet🎯	2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -9.01%E -4.00%K -7.21%G +0.000%	1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV +0.061%E +0.036%K +0.089%G +0.000%	4.0%	2026-10-03 16:31
betPARX🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.51%E -2.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 14:09
BetRivers🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.51%E -2.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 14:10
Bally Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.51%E -2.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 14:10
Hard Rock Bet🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%	1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.51%E -2.17%K -5.67%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-10-03 14:10
BetMGM🎯	2.38I 42.02%NM 40.35%EV -3.75%E -1.58%K -2.72%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 59.65%EV -4.11%E -2.55%K -6.74%G +0.000%	4.1%	2026-10-03 16:49
DraftKings🎯	2.31I 43.29%NM 41.07%EV -6.58%E -2.85%K -5.03%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.93%EV -4.11%E -2.55%K -6.74%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-10-03 16:45
Fliff🎯	2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.99%E -3.04%K -5.38%G +0.000%	1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.11%E -2.55%K -6.74%G +0.000%	5.6%	2026-10-03 16:49
FanDuel🎯	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.35%EV -2.14%E -0.882%K -1.50%G +0.000%	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.65%EV -6.49%E -4.13%K -11.39%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-10-03 16:45
theScore Bet🎯	2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -4.97%E -2.11%K -3.68%G +0.000%	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -7.09%E -4.54%K -12.65%G +0.000%	6.7%	2026-10-03 16:50

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.