Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montana State Bobcats v Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Kickoff: 2026-09-27 02:31 UTC

Final: Montana State Bobcats 28–14 Northern Arizona Lumberjacks

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

91%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Montana State Bobcats (Local)

Prediction 90.58%1.10fair odd

EV -3.08%

Edge -2.87%

Kelly -43.94%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

89.67%90.56%90.58%91.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.041.051.051.0796.15%95.14%95.24%93.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Visit)

Prediction 9.42%10.62fair odd

EV +3.58%

Edge +0.325%

Kelly +0.358%

Growth +0.013%

assuming max odds 11.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

8.64%9.44%9.42%10.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

9.2010.4610.5011.0010.87%9.56%9.52%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Montana State Bobcats (Local): 90.58%; Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Visit): 9.42%. For Northern Arizona Lumberjacks (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 10.62. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 11.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 91.29%EV -4.89%E -4.65%K -97.74%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.71%EV +3.58%E +0.325%K +0.358%G +0.013%	4.3%	2026-09-27 00:40
BetRivers🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.79%E -5.57%K -144.83%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.58%E +0.325%K +0.358%G +0.013%	5.2%	2026-09-27 00:29
betPARX🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.79%E -5.57%K -144.83%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.58%E +0.325%K +0.358%G +0.013%	5.2%	2026-09-27 00:30
Bally Bet🎯	1.04I 96.15%NM 91.36%EV -5.79%E -5.57%K -144.83%G +0.000%	11.00I 9.09%NM 8.64%EV +3.58%E +0.325%K +0.358%G +0.013%	5.2%	2026-09-27 00:29
BetMGM🎯	1.07I 93.46%NM 90.75%EV -3.08%E -2.87%K -43.94%G +0.000%	10.50I 9.52%NM 9.25%EV -1.13%E -0.107%K -0.119%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-09-27 01:54
Fliff🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.75%EV -4.89%E -4.65%K -97.74%G +0.000%	10.30I 9.71%NM 9.25%EV -3.01%E -0.292%K -0.324%G +0.000%	4.9%	2026-09-27 02:19
DraftKings🎯	1.05I 95.24%NM 90.58%EV -4.89%E -4.65%K -97.74%G +0.000%	10.10I 9.90%NM 9.42%EV -4.89%E -0.485%K -0.538%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-09-27 00:59
theScore Bet🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 90.42%EV -3.98%E -3.76%K -66.36%G +0.000%	10.00I 10.00%NM 9.58%EV -5.84%E -0.584%K -0.648%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-09-27 01:14
FanDuel🎯	1.06I 94.34%NM 89.67%EV -3.98%E -3.76%K -66.36%G +0.000%	9.20I 10.87%NM 10.33%EV -13.37%E -1.45%K -1.63%G +0.000%	5.2%	2026-09-27 00:30

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.