The School of College Oddsodds.college
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Merrimack Warriors v New Haven Chargers

Kickoff: 2026-09-26 23:01 UTC

Final: Merrimack Warriors 17–10 New Haven Chargers

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

9 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Merrimack Warriors (Local)

Prediction 76.71%1.30fair odd
EV -1.05%
Edge -0.812%
Kelly -3.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
75.14%76.37%76.71%77.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.251.251.2983.33%80.14%80.00%77.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Haven Chargers (Visit)

Prediction 23.29%4.29fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -0.517%
Kelly -0.678%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.79%23.63%23.29%24.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.044.104.2025.97%24.76%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Merrimack Warriors (Local): 76.71%; New Haven Chargers (Visit): 23.29%. For Merrimack Warriors (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.30. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.29, with an expected value of -1.05%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (9 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
BetMGM🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -1.05%E -0.812%K -3.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -9.16%E -2.35%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-26 16:39
Fliff🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 75.34%EV -3.35%E -2.66%K -12.88%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.66%EV -10.32%E -2.68%K -3.62%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-26 15:40
BetRivers🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.12%E -3.29%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.50%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-26 15:25
betPARX🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.12%E -3.29%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.50%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-26 15:25
Bally Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.64%EV -4.12%E -3.29%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.36%EV -4.50%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.4%2026-09-26 15:25
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.12%E -3.29%K -16.46%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -6.83%E -1.71%K -2.28%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 16:25
ReBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 77.21%EV -4.88%E -3.94%K -20.35%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.79%EV -2.17%E -0.517%K -0.678%G +0.000%4.5%2026-09-26 16:35
FanDuel🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -4.88%E -3.94%K -20.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -4.50%E -1.10%K -1.45%G +0.000%5.0%2026-09-26 19:49
theScore Bet🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -7.95%E -6.63%K -39.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -6.83%E -1.71%K -2.28%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-26 16:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.