Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Merrimack Warriors v New Haven Chargers

2026-09-26 23:01 UTC — NCAAF FCS

Head to Head

2 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

74%

26%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Merrimack Warriors (Local)

Prediction 74.19%1.35fair odd

EV -5.04%

Edge -3.94%

Kelly -18.00%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

73.77%74.19%74.19%74.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.271.271.271.2878.74%78.43%78.43%78.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Haven Chargers (Visit)

Prediction 25.81%3.87fair odd

EV -5.78%

Edge -1.58%

Kelly -2.18%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

25.81%25.81%25.81%26.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

3.603.633.633.6527.78%27.59%27.59%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Merrimack Warriors (Local): 74.19%; New Haven Chargers (Visit): 25.81%. For Merrimack Warriors (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.35. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 1.28, with an expected value of -5.04%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (2 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
ReBet🎯	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -5.04%E -3.94%K -18.00%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -7.07%E -1.96%K -2.72%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-09-23 06:50
FanDuel🎯	1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.78%E -4.55%K -21.42%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -5.78%E -1.58%K -2.18%G +0.000%	6.1%	2026-09-23 06:45

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.